Penn State vs Michigan Wrestling: Probable Lineups and Dual Preview

2024-01-19 14:19:35

Defending national champions Penn State will travel to Ann Arbor to take on Michigan this Friday, January 19th at 6:00 pm on the Big Ten Network. This will be one of the best duals of the weekend featuring a potential 19 total ranked wrestlers. Check out the article below to see the probable matchups along with a full breakdown and prediction for the dual.

Probable Lineups for Penn State vs Michigan

125: #14 Braeden Davis, Penn State vs #17 Michael DeAugustino, Michigan

133: #4 Aaron Nagao, Penn State vs. #6 Dylan Ragusin, Michigan

141: #2 Beau Bartlett, Penn State vs #24 Sergio Lemley, Michigan

149: #17 Tyler Kasak, Penn State vs #6 Austin Gomez/Dylan Gilcher, Michigan

157: #1 Levi Haines, Penn State vs #12 Will Lewan, Michigan

165: #8 Mitchell Mesenbrink, Penn State vs #7 Cam Amine, Michigan

174: #1 Carter Starocci, Penn State vs #3 Shane Griffith, Michigan

184: #5  Bernie Truax, Penn State vs #14 Jaden Bullock, Michigan

197: #1 Aaron Brooks, Penn State vs Bobby Striggow, Michigan

285: #1 Greg Kerkvliet, Penn State vs #4 Lucas Davison, Michigan

125: #14 Braeden Davis, Penn State vs #17 Michael DeAugustino, Michigan

True freshman Braeden Davis has taken control of the 125-pound starting spot for Penn State and looks to be an All-American threat this season. Davis is 10-0 on the year with ranked wins over #15 Brandon Kaylor and #32 Ethan Berginc. Davis’ match once morest Kaylor was especially impressive considering won the takedown battle 3-1 once morest the 2021 All-American and was leading 11-3 until Kaylor secured a late takedown.

DeAugustino placed 4th at 125 back in 2022 and might be the biggest test Davis has faced this year. DeAugustino went down at the CKLV with an injury but looked to be back to full strength last weekend when he recorded two straight victories over Tommy Capul (Maryland) and Tristan Lujan (Michigan State).

This match feels like a preview of a potential quarterfinal or round of 12 match we might see at the NCAA Tournament. I expect this to be a tightly contested bout and I’m giving Davis a slight edge over DeAugustino. Davis has been able to convert his shots to takedowns at a high rate and has been proficient in both the top and bottom positions. I’m predicting Davis to carry his momentum into Friday night and defeat DeAugustino in a close decision.

Braeden Davis’ win over Ethan Berginc at the 2023 Black Knight Invite:

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Prediction: Davis by decision

Team Score Prediction: Penn State 3, Michigan 0

133: #4 Aaron Nagao, Penn State vs. #6 Dylan Ragusin, Michigan

The matchup at 133 between Nagao and Ragusin has the potential to be the best of the night. Ragusin was originally planning on redshirting this year but when Chris Cannon went down with injury, the Wolverines were fortunate enough to have Ragusin waiting in the wings. Even with the original plans to redshirt, Ragusin has been solid accumulating a 13-0 record with ranked wins over Braxton Brown, Michael Colaiocco, and Dylan Shawver.

Aaron Nagao has established himself as one of the top 133-pound wrestlers in the country following his performance last year at the NCAA Tournament. There, Nagao placed 5th with notable wins over Jesse Mendez, Kai Orine, and Micky Phillippi. This year, Nagao is currently 7-1 on the year with all of his wins coming by bonus points and his lone loss coming once morest #1 Ryan Crookham (6-4).

Nagao and Ragusin have never met in college and this is another intriguing matchup to watch. Nagao is incredibly strong in scramble positions and has one of the best top games in the country. Ragusin lets it fly on his feet and is capable of hitting big moves from any position. This match is a toss-up in my opinion and I’m picking Ragusin to win in front of his home crowd.

Hear from Dylan Ragusin on the decision to come out of Olympic Redshirt:

Prediction: Ragusin by decision

Team Score Prediction: Penn State 3, Michigan 3

141: #2 Beau Bartlett, Penn State vs #24 Sergio Lemley, Michigan

141 will be the first match of the night where we might see bonus points from Penn State. Returning All-American Beau Bartlett will be a big favorite once morest true freshman Sergio Lemley. Bartlett is currently 10-0 on the year with 6 of his wins coming by bonus points – 4 pins and 2 majors. Lemley has been tough this year with ranked wins over Clay Carlson, Jordan Hamdan, and Kai Owen but I expect Bartlett to control this match from start to finish.

Prediction: Bartlett by major decision

Team Score Prediction: Penn State 7, Michigan 3

149: #17 Tyler Kasak, Penn State vs #6 Austin Gomez/Dylan Gilcher, Michigan

After Shayne Van Ness’ season-ending injury, Tyler Kasak has taken over and looks to be a threat to All-American this season. He’s currently 3-0 up at 149 with ranked wins over #22 Graham Rooks (15-0) and #18 Nash Singleton (4-1). However, Kasak hasn’t faced anyone as credentialed or skilled as Austin Gomez.

Gomez earned All-American honors in 2022 by finishing 4th place at the NCAA Tournament for Wisconsin. Gomez’s college hit list is incredible including wins over Sammy Sasson, Ridge Lovett, Max Murin, Shayne Van Ness, Yianni Diakomihalis, and several other ranked wrestlers. It will be interesting to see how close Gomez is to 100% but if he’s wrestling his best, Gomez is the favorite here and should win by a takedown or two.

There is a chance we see Dylan Gilcher take the mat for the Wolverines with Gomez still acclimating to college wrestling and balancing his efforts to make the Olympic team for Mexico. If it is Gilcher for Michigan, Kasak should be considered the favorite.

Austin Gomez shares regarding his college wrestling career:

Prediction: Gomez by decision

Team Score Prediction: Penn State 7, Michigan 6

157: #1 Levi Haines, Penn State vs #12 Will Lewan, Michigan

Levi Haines is the returning NCAA runner-up and the consensus number 1 at 157 pounds but he’ll be in for a dog fight once morest Lewan. These two met last year in an overtime match where Lewan was in on that match-winning takedown and just inches away from finishing and defeating Haines. However, Haines displayed incredible defense and was able to fight through the position and secure a takedown of his own to win the match, 3-1. All of that to say, Haines is the favorite Friday night but Lewan has a style to match him well and we should expect a tight bout.

Lewan vs Haines overtime highlight:

Prediction: Haines by decision

Team Score Prediction: Penn State 10, Michigan 6

165: #8 Mitchell Mesenbrink, Penn State vs #7 Cam Amine, Michigan

Mitchell Mesenbrink has steadily climbed the rankings this year with an 11-0 record and 8 of his eleven wins coming by bonus points – 2 pins and 6 techs. Cam Amine will be Mesenbrink’s biggest test by far this season and might have the style to challenge Mesenbrink in a way we haven’t seen yet this season. Amine is a 3-time All-American and can stifle offensive wrestlers with his strong defense. Despite Amine’s experience and defense, Amine has struggled this year losing three of his last 4 matches – most recently to Michigan State’s Caleb Fish last weekend when he gave up a late takedown. Given Amine’s tendency to keep matches close, and Mesenbrink’s high-powered offense, I’m picking Mesenbrink to win by a takedown.

Mesenbrink’s win over Brevin Cassella at the 2023 Black Knight Invite:

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Prediction: Mesenbrink by decision

Team Score Prediction: Penn State 13, Michigan 6

174: #1 Carter Starocci, Penn State vs #3 Shane Griffith, Michigan

The matchup at 174 features two national champions and is the highest-ranked matchup of the night. Starocci has been a man on a mission this year with 6 wins (7 if you count the All-Star match) and all of his wins have been by bonus points. On the other side of things, Griffith has taken some time getting adjusted to the move up in weight dropping a match to #26 Lorenzo Norman at the CKLV. While Griffith has been better since then, Starocci is on another level and I believe he’s capable of earning a major decision or more over Griffith.
Carter Starocci’s win over #2 Mekhi Lewis at the 2023 All-Star Classic:

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Prediction: Starocci by major decision

Team Score Prediction: Penn State 17, Michigan 6

184: #5 Bernie Truax, Penn State vs #14 Jaden Bullock, Michigan

Bernie Truax missed Penn State’s dual last week reportedly due to an illness but should be expected to return Friday night once morest Jaden Bullock. Truax is a 3-time All-American and will be a favorite once morest Bullock who has had an up-and-down year. Bullock has impressive victories on the year over the likes of #11 Dylan Fishback and #15 Gavin Hoffman, but also has dropped matches to #27 Tony Negron and Kole Mulhauser. With that in mind, I’m favoring Truax to win handily and maybe even push for a major.

Jaden Bullock’s win over Dylan Fishback at the 2023 CKLV:

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Prediction: Truax by decision

Team Score Prediction: Penn State 20, Michigan 6

197: #1 Aaron Brooks, Penn State vs Bobby Striggow, Michigan

Three-time national champion Aaron Brooks is 6-0 on the year with 3 pins and 3 techs and will be a big favorite once morest Bobby Striggow who will be the only unranked wrestler to take the mat on Friday. Striggow hasn’t given up a bonus point victory yet but I expect Brooks to get to his offense early and bring home bonus points for the Nittany Lions.

Prediction: Brooks by tech fall

Team Score Prediction: Penn State 25, Michigan 6

285: #1 Greg Kerkvliet, Penn State vs #4 Lucas Davison, Michigan

Greg Kerkvliet and Lucas Davison have wrestled only 1 time in their college career with Kerkvliet coming out on top, 5-3. The two met back in the consolation semifinals of the 2022 Big Ten tournament in a unique match. The bout went scoreless in the first period and Davison chose down, got an escape, and quick takedown to take a 3-0 lead over Kerkvliet. Then, Kerkvliet secured a reversal at the end of the second period and early in the third riding out Davison both times to accumulate two minutes and 43 seconds of riding time.

Both Kerkvliet and Davison have improved since their last meeting so I’m curious how the match will unfold Friday night. I doubt we see Kerkvliet with two more reversals on Friday but we might see his riding ability make the difference in this bout once morest Davison. This has all the makings of a one takedown or overtime bout and I’m picking Kerkvliet to come out on top once once more in a close decision.

Prediction: Kerkvliet by decision

Final Team Score Prediction: Penn State 28, Michigan 6

Dual Summary – How Can Michigan Keep Things Close?

I have Penn State winning by a 22-point margin but Michigan can win toss-ups at 125, 157, and 165. While it’s unlikely that happens, victories in those three matches would make the score 19-15 in favor of the Nittany Lions. The Wolverines have a very narrow path to victory and it’s far more likely that Penn State wins 7-9 matches than Michigan winning 6. However, we always see wild things happen at duals, and with home mat advantage, we should expect a great showing out of the Wolverines in Ann Arbor. Regardless of the final score, this will be an outstanding dual from start to finish and one that you’re not going to want to miss!

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