2024-01-19 01:41:00
The baht opened this morning at 35.54 baht per dollar. Appreciated slightly from the previous day’s closing level of 35.58 baht per dollar.
Mr. Poon Panichphibun Capital Market Strategist Krungthai GLOBAL MARKETS Krung Thai Bank revealed that The baht opened this morning at 35.54 baht per dollar. Appreciated slightly from the previous day’s closing level of 35.58 baht per dollar.
During the previous night, the baht value fluctuated sideways (oscillating in the range of 35.52-35.68 baht per dollar) with a weakening fluctuation. This follows the strengthening of the dollar and the increase in the US 10-year bond yield following reporting the number of people applying for unemployment benefits (Jobless Claims) in the US came out better than expected. This has caused market players to lower their expectations of the Fed’s “fast and deep” interest rate cuts.
However, the baht gradually turned to strengthen. following a slight contraction of the dollar After the atmosphere in the US financial market Back to being in a state of being open to taking risks. from the rise of big tech stocks
In addition, the gold price continues to rebound above $2,020 per ounce. It has helped to help the baht gradually return to strengthening.
for Trend of the baht value We evaluate that The baht may strengthen somewhat. Or at least it may swing sideways near the level of 35.50 baht per dollar. following the momentum on the weak side began to slow down This is because market players have gradually reduced the chances of a “fast and deep” interest rate cut by the Fed this week. This causes market players to wait to learn more regarding new factors.
However, we probably think that the baht still lacks clear supporting factors for its appreciation. Especially in the fund flow of foreign investors, the appreciation of the baht is limited.
We still evaluate the baht support zone around 35.30-35.40 baht per dollar. As for the resistance zone of the baht, it is still in the range of 35.70-35.80 baht per dollar.
This is in addition to changing market players’ views on the Fed interest rate outlook. We must keep a close eye on US economic data reports. We believe that changes in market players’ views on the interest rate trends of both the ECB and BOE will have an effect on the direction of the dollar as well. As can be seen the day before. The British Pound (GBP) turned around and strengthened somewhat. After British inflation is still at a higher level than expected.
Which today we consider The British retail sales report will also have an effect on adjusting market players’ views on the outlook for BOE interest rates and may affect the direction of the British pound and the dollar.
In addition, the direction of gold prices is another factor that still affects the baht. We evaluate that Market players may gradually start selling to make some profit on the rebound of gold. (This transaction flow will support the strengthening of the baht) if the price of gold rises around +20 dollars per ounce. to the resistance zone around 2,030-2,040 dollars per ounce.
During this period, the volatility of the baht was higher than the historical average. (Looking at the weekly baht frame) clearly Therefore we still recommend that Entrepreneurs should use a variety of hedging tools, such as Options, to increase efficiency in hedging once morest exchange rate risk.
And in addition to using the aforementioned tools Choosing to transact in local currency is another interesting way to manage exchange rate risk. Entrepreneurs should compare transaction costs and hedging plans before making every decision.
Looking at the baht today It is expected to be at the level of 35.40-35.65 baht/dollar.
This is despite the fact that market players are still concerned that the Fed may not be in a hurry to cut interest rates as quickly and deeply as expected. After reporting US economic data The latest still reflects a bright economic picture, but US stock market It was able to return to being in a risk-on state from the rise of big tech stocks.
Especially group stocks Semiconductor, such as Nvidia +1.9%, benefited from a better-than-expected earnings report from major chip maker TSMC. In addition, an increase in Apple shares +3.3% following analysts adjusted their investment recommendations to “ Buy” also helped support the S&P500 index to close the market +0.88%.
On the shoreEuropean stock market The STOXX600 Index turned around and rose +0.59%, supported by an increase in the group’s stocks. Semiconductor such as Infineon Tech. +4.8%, ASML +4.1% following TSMC’s operating results came out better than expected.
In addition, European stock markets were supported by the rebound of stocks in the brand-name product group LVMH +2.5% following Richemont +10.4%, which owns luxury brands such as Cartier and IWC, reported good results. Than expected Especially sales in China are growing well.
in the shoreBond Market The latest report on the number of people applying for unemployment benefits (Jobless Claims) came out better than expected. and reflects the US labor market. that is still strong Including a statement from a Fed official (Raphael Bostic) signaling that the Fed will not be in a hurry to cut interest rates. This has resulted in market players lowering their expectations for quick and deep interest rate cuts from the Fed this year. This caused the US 10-year bond yield to continue rising to 4.15%.
The movement of the US 10-year Bond Yield in the past is in line with our view, emphasizing that Market players should be wary of gradually lowering their expectations for a Fed rate cut. Therefore we still recommend that Market players should focus on the Buy on Dip strategy, trying to take into account the break-even point or break-even point when considering the total return or Total Return that will be obtained from holding bonds.
sidecurrency market The dollar moves fluctuating. There is a chance of appreciation when compared to major currencies. After market players lowered their expectations of the Fed’s “fast and deep” interest rate cuts.
However, the dollar has slowed its appreciation somewhat. According to the risk exposure of the US stock market As a result, the overall dollar index (DXY) continues to oscillate near the level of 103.4 points (oscillating within the range of 103.2-103.6 points).
In the sectiongold price Although the price of gold (COMEX gold contract for delivery in February) is under pressure from concerns that The Fed may not be in a hurry to cut interest rates as quickly as the market had expected.
However, some market players are still gradually buying gold in the support zone around 2,000-2,010 dollars per ounce. Amidst the conflict situation in the Middle East that is still hot. As a result, the gold price was able to rebound to the zone of 2,020 dollars per ounce once more.
For today, market players will wait for the US economic data report such as the Consumer Confidence Index. by the University of Michigan (U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment), which is in addition to the Consumer Confidence Index Market players will keep a close eye on that. Short-term and medium-term inflation forecasts from the said report are What has changed?
On the European side, we expect that market players will keep an eye on the UK Retail Sales report, which may affect market players’ views on the Bank of England’s (BOE) outlook for monetary policy adjustments. and in addition to the aforementioned economic data reports The statement of the President of the European Central Bank (ECB) will also be of interest to market players.
and in addition to economic data reports and statements from central bank officials. We evaluate that Market players will closely follow the earnings reports of listed companies. This may affect the atmosphere in the financial market during this period.
Read more news:
1705630499
#baht #opened #morning #bahtdollar #strengthening #slightly
