2024-01-17 03:45:00
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Germany is arming itself: A secret document shows how the Bundeswehr might ward off a possible Russian attack. Preparations are already underway.
Berlin – Decades of certainties in Germany have been shattered by the Russian war of aggression once morest Ukraine. This is how a new era began, as Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) put it. He emphasized the need to strengthen the Bundeswehr and defense spending. Germany has repeatedly supplied weapons to Ukraine.
Boris Pistorius (SPD), Federal Minister of Defense, has allegedly had a specific scenario developed to prepare the Bundeswehr for a possible Russian attack. The Bild newspaper reported exclusively on an alleged secret document, the authenticity of which has not yet been confirmed by the Ministry of Defense. This is a hypothetical scenario. In fact, the Federal Ministry of Defense is planning to send a brigade of around 5,000 soldiers to the NATO country Lithuania from 2025 in order to strengthen the NATO alliance and deter Russia.
No information on the likelihood of confrontation with Russia
Die Bild newspaper himself cannot estimate the probability of the scenario from the secret paper. A spokesman did not provide any information regarding the document that may exist, but only made a general statement: “Basically, I can tell you that considering different scenarios, even if they are extremely unlikely, are part of everyday military business, especially in training.” the Bild The published scenario looks like training material that is intended to prepare the German army for the worst possible emergency.
Minister Pistorius visits Bundeswehr soldiers in Lithuania in June. A secret document is said to show preparations for an attack by Russia. © IMAGO/Funke Photo Services
According to this scenario, the Bundeswehr would prepare for Russia to mobilize an additional 200,000 soldiers as early as February 2024. Due to the lack of Western weapons support, Russia might make decisive progress in Ukraine in the spring of 2024 and prepare targeted cyber attacks on Western countries in the early summer.
Scenario like at the beginning of the Ukraine war
Furthermore, in this scenario, Russia would initiate another form of hybrid warfare: it would attempt to incite ethnic Russian minorities in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, which might lead to conflict. Russia might use this as a pretext for further escalation.
In September, Russia would launch the large-scale exercise “Zapad 2024” and station 50,000 soldiers in western Russia and Belarus. Loud Bild From there it would not be far to a troop deployment on the border of the NATO countries Poland and Lithuania. This scenario is reminiscent of the start of the war in Ukraine.
30,000 soldiers from Germany ready for an emergency
The troop deployment would begin with Russia presenting a threat scenario to its Kaliningrad exclave. At the same time, it would exploit a suspected weakness in the US following the elections (a decision between Joe Biden and Donald Trump) in September 2024 to trigger unrest at the so-called Suwalki Gap with several deaths and to relocate more troops. The propaganda might suggest to the Russian population that ethnic Russians here too are threatened by the West.
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In response, NATO would be forced to prevent a possible escalation in May 2025. Up to 300,000 NATO soldiers, including 30,000 from Germany, would then be relocated to the eastern flank. The exercise scenario ends with this case of the relocation of the German units to the Baltic states.
Employee Nils Hinsberger inserted this article into an AI language model for optimization at his own discretion. All information has been carefully checked.
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