2024-01-15 18:35:15
Drawing by Zhang Dawei
◎Reporter Li Yuqi
On Monday, the three major A-share indexes had mixed gains and losses, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing slightly higher. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 2886.29 points, up 0.15%; the Shenzhen Component Index was at 8963.93 points, down 0.36%; the GEM Index was at 1745.61 points, down 0.88%. The transaction volume of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets yesterday was 610.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 65.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day.
On the market, the tourism and hotel sector performed strongly throughout the day, with Changbaishan, Xi’an Tourism, Dalian Sunya, and Jiuhua Tourism rising by the daily limit; shipping stocks rose, with COSCO Shipping Energy hitting their daily limit during the session, followed by China Merchants South Oil, China Merchants Shipping, etc.; chip stocks surged Highs fell, Jiejie Microelectronics rose by more than 15%, and Xinjie Energy hit the daily limit; consumer sub-sectors such as airports, civil aviation, and retail also performed well, with Maoye Commercial and Guoguang Chain hitting the daily limit.
Tourism stocks and retail stocks were among the top gainers
Recently, tourism in Harbin has continued to be booming, and cultural and tourism departments in Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Jiangxi and other places have also begun to attract tourists in various ways. Driven by this, the tourism and hotel sector rose strongly once more yesterday. Changbai Mountain went out of the 8-board market in 10 days. As of the close, Xi’an Tourism, Changbai Mountain, Jiuhua Tourism, Qujiang Culture and Tourism, Dalian Shengya rose by the limit, Tianmu Lake, Emeishan A, Lijiang Shares, Huangshan Tourism, etc. were among the top gainers.
Huatai Securities believes that cases such as “Zibo Barbecue”, “Guizhou Village Supermarket” and “Harbin Tourism Craze” continue to verify the resilience of tourism demand and reflect the current new trends in cultural tourism: First, consumers are extending their travel radius and pursuing experience and differentiation. ; Second, the government and enterprises collaborate to activate cultural tourism resources, and the government introduces preferential policies to cater to cost-effective consumption, driving the development of local tourism and related industries; third, the integration of multiple business formats, and the increased penetration of new channels such as Douyin accelerates the upgrading and upgrading of the content of the cultural tourism industry. The pace of innovation. The long Spring Festival holiday is expected to further catalyze market sentiment. IP with distinctive local characteristics, destination passenger flow and tourism revenue with good tourism carrying capacity are expected to grow rapidly. It is recommended to pay attention to thematic investment opportunities in the tourism sector.
Retail stocks also performed strongly yesterday, with Maoye Commercial, Guoguang Chain, Xujiahui, and Hemei Group hitting their daily limit, followed by ZTE Commercial, Yimin Group, Eurasia Group, and Shanghai Jiubai.
According to the commercial big data monitoring of the Ministry of Commerce, the sales of key retail and catering companies nationwide during the 2024 New Year’s Day holiday increased by 11.0% year-on-year. The Spring Festival consumption season is approaching, and consumption momentum is expected to be further released.
Everbright Securities analyzed that the recent strength of some small-capitalization department store stocks, especially department store stocks in the Northeast, is partly due to the recent high popularity of tourism in the Northeast; on the other hand, it is also due to the recent high market attention to the concept of revaluation of department store property values.
Hydrogen energy sector is active during the session
The hydrogen energy sector was active during the session yesterday, with electrolyzers leading the gains. As of the close, Cologne and Kewell rose by more than 10%, while Donghua Technology, Huadian Heavy Industry, Zhenyang Development, and Hemei Group rose by the limit.
Hemei Group recently announced that in accordance with the company’s strategic development and business needs, in order to open up new business areas and reduce the company’s investment risks, the company and related party Shanxi Pengfei Green Energy Investment Co., Ltd. signed an agreement on January 12, 2024. , jointly invested in the establishment of Shanxi Pengfei Hydrome Energy Green Development Co., Ltd.
In terms of news, favorable policies for the hydrogen energy industry have been introduced one following another in recent days. The National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Commerce, and the State Administration for Market Regulation recently jointly issued the “Opinions on Supporting Guangzhou Nansha in Relaxing Market Access and Strengthening Supervisory System Reform”, which proposed the creation of Guangzhou Nansha Guangdong-Hong Kong Integrated Green Low-carbon Demonstration Zone to promote hydrogen energy, etc. Clean energy utilization. The “Three-Year Action Plan for High-Quality Development of Hydrogen Energy Industry in Anhui Province” recently issued by the Anhui Provincial Development and Reform Commission proposes to initially realize the commercial promotion and application of hydrogen energy by 2025 and build an important domestic hydrogen energy industry development highland.
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities said that currently, the hydrogen energy industry is undergoing a butterfly change. With the support of policies, substantial progress has been made in reducing costs in all aspects of the hydrogen energy industry, and industry prosperity has improved.
Agency: A-shares must remain patient during the bottoming period
CICC analysis said that although the recent market trend has been weak, the cooling of trading sentiment once more means that asset prices have been factored into investors’ pessimistic expectations. At the same time, factors beneficial to the market are also increasing at the margin: First, market valuations are at historically extreme levels. As of January 12, the forward price-to-earnings ratio of the CSI 300 Index was 8.8 times, and the corresponding equity risk premium was at the historical average. Above 1 times the standard deviation, the valuation risks of blue-chip stocks heavily held by institutions have been fully released; secondly, policies related to stabilizing growth such as lowering deposit interest rates and optimizing real estate policies in some cities have gradually been implemented, and the support effect on the economy is also expected to gradually appear.
Overall, although the short-term market is in the bottoming stage, extreme valuations are coupled with the gradual accumulation of positive factors. Investors must remain patient regarding the market outlook and do not need to be too pessimistic. Short-term disturbances will not change the long-term pattern. There is still hope for market allocation opportunities in 2024. Better than 2023, in the next 3 to 6 months it is recommended to pay attention to the combination of offensive and defensive economic recovery and dividend assets.
Centaline Securities stated that the current average price-to-earnings ratios of the Shanghai Composite Index and the GEM Index are 11.52 times and 30.56 times respectively, which are below the median level in the past three years. The market valuation is still in a low area and is suitable for mid- to long-term layout. It is expected that the overall stock index will maintain a volatile pattern in the future, and it is still necessary to pay close attention to changes in policy, funding and external factors. In terms of specific investment, it is recommended that investors pay attention to investment opportunities in new energy, environmental protection, electric power, military industry and other industry sectors in the short term.
Guotai Junan Securities said that in the current environment of differentiated valuations and market fluctuations, the opportunities for blue-chip stocks in the next stage will mainly be in sectors with high dividends or stable cash flow, while the market for small-cap stocks may ebb. It is expected that investment opportunities will mainly fall in the following three directions: first, “low valuation + high dividends”, including resource products (petrochemicals, coal, etc.), telecom operators, highways, state-owned banks; second, “low valuation + stable cash” “flow”, such as public utilities (gas and electricity), environmental protection (water and solid waste), and transportation (ports); the third is low-level growth stocks in the context of an oversold market rebound, such as pharmaceuticals, electronics, and military industries.
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