2024-01-14 21:27:00
The reduction cycle began in September 2023. Until August 2023, the BCR rate was 7.75%, so if it is compared to the current rate (6.50%), this implies a cumulative reduction of 1.25 percentage points.
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When comparing the interest rates of August 31, 2023, with respect to the last rate reported by the SBS as of January 12, 2024, in the case of corporate loans the rate fell by one percentage point, going from 8.4% to 7.4% (credits from 181 to 360 days). That is, almost the entire reduction in the BCR reference rate has been carried forward.
Something similar happens with interest rates for loans to large companies, dropping from 9.7% to 8.9% (see table).
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However, for the rest of the credits the effect has been null and in some cases there has even been an increase in interest rates.
Thus, interest rates on loans to medium-sized businesses rose from 13% to 13.1%, for small businesses they also rose from 33.2% to 34% and for microbusinesses they rose from 54.3% to 55.8%.
Likewise, interest rates on consumer loans also rose. For credit cards they rose from 64.1% to 66.3%. On the other hand, a slight reduction in mortgage loan rates stands out, from 9.3% to 9%.
Types of loans – interest ratesAugust 2023January 2024*Corporate8.4%7.4%Large companies9.7%8.9%Medium companies13%13.1%Small companies33.2%34%Microbusinesses54.3%55.8%Credit cards64.1%66.1%Credits vehicles13.7%13.4%Consumer loans in installments, one year56.8%55.5%Mortgage loans9.3%9%Source: SBS, loans from 181 to 360 days*Data from August 31, 2023 vs January 12, 2024
In this regard, economist Juan Carlos Odar, director of Phase Consultores, indicated that the BCR reference rate usually has a faster impact on corporate loans and large companies because they have less risk and with the possibility of accessing other sources of financing. , which represents a competitive factor
“On the other hand, small businesses have more risk, which is why the rate is higher. Probably in the coming months the rate reduction for these segments might be noticed a little more, it will be a slow process, but the impact will be less significant, since they have a higher rate,” he said.
For his part, Arturo García, professor of finance at Esan, said that the banking strategy has been to raise rates in the segments where delinquencies have increased in recent months, that is, for medium, small and micro businesses.
“I hope that in the coming months financial entities change their strategy, that they are more rigorous when evaluating credits and begin to accompany the BCR rate reduction with a reduction in rates for medium, small and micro businesses. Well, high rates also contribute to late payments. I hope that the interest rate not only drops for corporate loans and large companies,” García said.
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The data. Both analysts estimate that the BCR will continue lowering its interest rate this year, since inflation is controlled and the economy needs to be boosted to get out of the recession. Juan Carlos Odar estimates that the BCR’s reference rate might drop to 4%; while Arturo García predicts that the rate would reach a range of between 4% to 4.5%.
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