2024-01-13 10:01:05
Washington (AFP) – Joe Biden took office in 2021 with a promise to negotiate to end the bloody war in Yemen, but the American president, who is seeking to win a new term in November, began the new year by launching strikes on this country, but his administration hopes for a return. To calm down.
Published on: 01/13/2024 – 11:01
4 minutes
Experts believe that the Biden administration and the Houthi rebels in Yemen, as well as this group’s supporters in Iran, have entered into a sensitive and dangerous implicit agreement, in which each party believes it needs to use force while assuming that the other will not want to escalate.
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has made four tours in the Middle East since Hamas launched an unprecedented attack on Israel on October 7, to which the Hebrew state responded with violent bombing operations in Gaza. He emphasizes that containing the conflict is a priority.
In private, American officials say they believe Lebanese Hezbollah, which is also supported by Iran, got the message.
On the other hand, the Houthis defied American warnings by constantly targeting international ships in solidarity with the Palestinians, disrupting global trade in the Red Sea and forcing ships to follow long detours through Africa.
During his latest tour, Blinken informed his partners in the region of the US-British strikes on Friday once morest the Houthis, which occurred while he was on the plane returning to Washington. He told these partners that the United States considers the strikes defensive, and not a new escalation in the context of a regional war.
“I don’t think the conflict is escalating,” Antony Blinken told reporters in Cairo on Thursday. “There are a lot of risk points, and we are trying to manage each of them.”
For his part, Joe Biden, in the statement announcing the strikes, did not mention Iran, although the United States has accused Tehran in the past of providing the necessary means for Houthi attacks. These reluctances suggest that regional power is likely not a goal for the United States.
The United States launched a new strike on Sanaa at dawn on Saturday.
“Bear the pain”
After diplomatic efforts by the United Nations and the United States, a truce was reached in April 2022 in Yemen between the Houthis and the government recognized by the international community and supported by Saudi Arabia. The war caused one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world.
A massive demonstration in Hodeidah denouncing the American and British strikes on Houthi sites, on January 12, 2024 © / AFP
Michael Knights, an expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy who has studied the Houthis, believes that the rebels are fully aware that the United States does not want to destroy the fragile peace in Yemen, the poorest country in the Arabian Peninsula.
He added that the Houthis “have very great stamina” following years of fighting, and strikes on their missile launch facilities are unlikely to affect their control of power in Yemen.
He believed that they “have a large margin of freedom to do what they want and provoke the world’s superpower, and they enjoy doing so.”
Knights added that he expects the Houthis to stop the confrontation when the war in Gaza ends, even though Israel promised not to stop its campaign until Hamas is eliminated.
He said, “What the United States is trying to do is force the Houthis to submit before the conflict in Gaza ends, and this is likely impossible.”
Not “inevitable”
Sarhang Hama Saeed, director of Middle East programs at the US Institute of Peace, believes that the Houthis view confrontation as a “manageable” way to strengthen their position in the region.
He says, “But it is very likely that the loss of life on one side or the other will push one of the parties to escalation, and this may lead to a continuation of the chain of reactions and (lead to) a confrontation of a greater regional character.”
“I think the major players don’t want this, but that doesn’t mean it’s inevitable,” he adds.
John Alterman, an official at the Center for International and Strategic Studies, wrote in an analysis that Iran is likely “pleased” with Houthi attacks on international ships because Tehran can thus “reap the benefits without paying the cost.”
However, it is a mistake, he said, to believe that Iran is directing the attacks. Despite the economic damage, he doubted the possibility that the Houthi attacks would cause a broader war in the Middle East.
“Neither side seeks all-out war,” Alterman said.
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