2024-01-11 14:05:21
Flu infections, which were skyrocketing in the last fortnight of December, have already reached their peak. In the first week of the year, the incidence decreased slightly compared to the previous week. But, if citizens learned anything during the pandemic, it is that a rise in infections is followed by another rise in hospitalizations. And this is happening now: admissions continue to grow and the strain on hospitals increases.
For all respiratory infections, the Spanish average has gone from an incidence of 966.2 cases per 100,000 inhabitants to 935.1, which represents a reduction of 3.2%. according to data published this Thursday by the Carlos III Health Institute.
Evolution of acute respiratory infections
Rate per 100,000 inhabitants measured with sentinel systems in the last weeks of 2023 and first of 2024
The drop is most pronounced in the flu, the virus that has proliferated the most this season. The sentinel health centers (which represent a representative sample from which the general data are extrapolated) have detected 387.4 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, a drop of 10%. Covid, however, increases slightly to a rate of 98.8 cases per 100,000, 6% more. Hospitalizations for all respiratory viruses have increased by 9.1%, to 33.5 admissions per 100,000 inhabitants.
Both the distribution of cases and the trend change greatly by territory. Castilla-La Mancha, despite a slight decrease, continues to be the community with the highest incidence of respiratory viruses (1,691.3 per 100,000). Aragon, where they are growing, is now second (1,338.3), ahead of the Valencian Community (1,318.9), where they are falling.
Observing the trends is important because it depends on them whether communities have to keep masks mandatory in health centers, as ordered by the Ministry of Health on Wednesday, or whether they can move to a simple recommendation. For this, Health imposed that they must chain two consecutive weeks of decreases in incidence.
Andalusia, Asturias, the Canary Islands, Cantabria, Castilla y León, Extremadura, Galicia and Madrid are the autonomies in which the incidence has already decreased in the first week of the year. If this trend continues next week, they might make the mask more flexible in health centers and hospitals. Both the Basque Country and Melilla had two consecutive weeks of declines, but Carlos III has not updated the data.
The Government of Euskadi has implemented the mandatory nature of masks, but has announced that it is going to appeal the order of the Ministry of Health, since, according to the complaint, there was no prior agreement from the Interterritorial Council of the National Health System nor was there a hearing. to the autonomous communities before making this decision.
Overcome the collapse in health centers
The data published this Thursday is reflected, in general, in the state of health centers, which no longer present the collapse that was seen during Christmas. In addition to the decrease in cases, two other factors intervene: on the one hand, they are recovering the staff who were on vacation, which gives them more resources to face the respiratory virus epidemic. On the other hand, according to Lorenzo Armenteros, spokesperson for the Spanish Society of General and Family Physicians (SEMG), patients no longer come as often with “banal” symptoms, in addition to the fact that the use of masks has become normalized.
“There is more fear of coming to the centers and more telephone consultations with respiratory processes. The information from the media has been more effective than the institutional information,” warns Armenteros, who assures, however, that it is something that does not happen in the Emergencies, which maintain very tense care levels.
This statement is corroborated by Jose Manuel Fandiño, member of the Board of Directors of the Spanish Society of Emergency Medicine (SEMES): “It depends on the communities. They all have average historical care demand data, but there are some like Navarra, with approximately a 20% increase in demand for hospitalization due to flu (peak is expected in regarding 7 to 20 days). And others like Galicia, with a drop of 10%-15% compared to previous weeks.”
Fandiño explains that now what health workers call “the drain of patients pending admission” is felt more strongly, that is, those who wait in the emergency room to be taken to their destination floors and services. If this is not resolved, the emergency circuits “are not fully operational” and patients do not have “adequate conditions of dignity and privacy.” “It’s not that the emergency services are saturated, what is saturated is the hospital,” he concludes.
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