2024-01-10 17:45:38
Exports of goods and services should show a consolidated growth rate of 7.6% in 2024, forecasts the High Commission for Planning (HCP).
This improvement would be attributable to the continued performance of exports of global trades, textiles and phosphate and its derived products, following in particular the reduction in import duties applied on chemical fertilizers by the United States, explains the HCP in its 2024 forecast economic budget.
According to the same source, the improvement in economic prospects among the main trading partners should stimulate external demand following its sharp slowdown in 2023, thus promoting the strengthening of the exportable supply of the national economy. At the same time, the HCP indicates that the improvement in national growth should contribute to an increase in imports, particularly those of intermediate and capital goods.
In addition, the unfavorable situation of agricultural production should favor the use of imports to meet the need for food products and live animals.
On the other hand, the expected resumption of exports of phosphate products should fuel imports of intermediate products. Thus the volume of imports of goods and services should increase by 7.8% instead of 6.5% estimated for 2023.
The HCP also indicates that the downward trend in the prices of raw materials, particularly energy and food, as well as the improvement in supply conditions on a global scale, should contribute to the attenuation of inflationary pressures in 2024.
Under these conditions, the value of national exports of goods and services should record an increase of 7.6%, while that of imports should show an increase of 7.3% bringing the resource deficit to 10.6% of GDP in 2024.
Taking into account the evolution of transfers from Moroccans living abroad (MRE), the current account should show a deficit of around 0.4% of GDP (gross domestic product) instead of a surplus of almost 0. 1% of GDP estimated in 2023.
This financing need reflects the gap between investment which should represent 28.2% of GDP and national savings (projected at 27.8% of GDP in 2024) and this, taking into account external income which should be around 7 .2% of GDP.
For its part, domestic savings should reach 20.6% of GDP instead of 19.7% of GDP in 2023, following nominal GDP growth of 6% combined with an increase in national consumption of 4.9 %.
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