2024-01-06 03:25:06
Three weeks have passed since Javier Milei assumed the presidency of the republic. In that short period, the new government has been very clear in raising the risk of the catastrophe that it is trying to avoid. The macroeconomic and social disaster left by the outgoing government is of such magnitude that avoiding hyperinflation is the main challenge, for which the Government calls on its own and others.
Faced with this panorama, only the Kirchnerist opposition has reacted as expected. Opposing everything, mobilizing their militancy, banging pots and pans 48 hours following the new government took office, calling for a general strike, threatening, cutting routes, alerting citizens regarding the threats and tragedies that are coming.
What is very striking is the reaction of the rest of the political arc. From radicalism, to the Civic Coalition, from Larretism to the new group formed by Pichetto, Monzó, Massot and Schiarettism, etc. This entire group of leaders has decided to put “all their energy” into challenging the institutional forms of the proposals of the new government of Javier Milei, offering mirror laws and other resources to “yes” support the Government.
At the moment of greatest fragility of the new government, the non-Kirchnerist leadership offers its support to “value Congress” and thus democratic life. They have not said a word regarding how close we are to hyperinflation, they have not made the slightest gesture of committing to the reduction in public spending, which is essential. They might lead a campaign to lower spending in all the country’s legislatures, for example. When society cries out for the political class to lower their spending, beyond what it implies in large numbers, none of that happens.
The lack of support that one expected to see in defense of the new government and the country reaches such a point that in the province of Buenos Aires the deputies of Cambiemos and some former members of La Libertad Avanza, who now work close to Sergio Massa, supported without any modesty to Governor Kicillof and his request for a 200 percent increase in the Rural Real Estate Tax, with the argument that they managed to lower it by 300 percent. Could it be that they had not read the report by specialist Nadin Argañaraz, who indicated that the delay of said tax with respect to inflation was 58 percent?
It is vox populi that the government of the province of Buenos Aires has rejected the importance of adjusting public spending. By supporting the governor in such a tax increase, while continuing, for example, not to get involved in the Chocolate Rigau case, they are placing themselves directly on the opposite side of the national government.
Many of the main political and economic analysts have not been left behind and have basically decided to ignore the emergency context, leave aside the danger of hyperinflation and have resorted to a consistently negative adjective regarding the government and its policies. Let’s look at some of the most reiterated concepts in recent chronicles and articles. “Nightmare in the streets,” is how they express themselves when analyzing the social scenario that, they propose, is going to be created as a result of the mobilizations with which Kirchnerism is going to try to build a climate of belligerence on a socioeconomic reality that is not new, But Argentines have been suffering for decades and as a result, with fears and doubts, society has decided to elect an outsider like Milei to lead that change. “Lethal recession for 45% of the people”, the statement seems to not take into account that already in 2023 the country had a fall of around 3% annually, and that since 2011 no jobs have been created. On the other hand, there are no serious forecasts that have dared to use the term “lethal” to describe the lack of growth at the start of a stabilization program such as the one that the Government must adopt. The “drama lurks” does not seem to be an adequate expression to summarize the vicissitudes that the new government will have to face to overcome the problems that the country has been facing for decades. “It makes me upset that another president will come later and change everything,” this is a comment that has been widely repeated to question the use of a DNU instead of a law. It is as if the analysts had lived the last 40 years in another country.
In Argentina in the last 40 years the monetary sign has been changed with a decree (Plan Austral), the law of intangibility of bank deposits has been reversed on average in the 2000s, etc. At this point in our democratic life we should already understand that what “shields” an act of government is the political strength of the government that promotes it. “The elimination of retirement mobility is the most serious thing.” The new government is trying to avoid the hyperinflation that the Kirchner government left behind and, at the same time, it has to try to prevent the process of liquefaction of pensions with inflation from continuing. That is why it proposes eliminating retirement mobility because it is obvious that the conditions are not met to propose a new formula in an economic and fiscal scenario dominated by uncertainty. “We want to know what the containment plan is”, it seems a little ambitious that in these economic and social circumstances of the country, the new government, in three weeks, presents a social containment plan, which never existed despite the socioeconomic collapse of society. all of which we have attended for 20 years. “The forms are the most worrying”, we return to the beginning, it would be very valid to analyze the forms once the importance and legitimacy of the substance of the issue has been agreed upon. What has been missing in these chronicles is precisely that. Present and express the agreement or not, to the substance of the proposed policies, beyond the legitimate debate on the forms.
President Milei has not disappointed his voters and is beginning to present the broad outlines of what his administration will be like. These first months of his mandate are decisive, because the greater the political legitimacy of his government, in terms of being able to advance his proposals in Congress and without major setbacks with Justice, the more possibilities of success there will be in economic matters. . Reaching the month of April with single-digit inflation might be a reality if the “tug of war” of the entire “friendly” political arc with the President goes into pause mode, and it is accepted that the new government requires the framework of the economic emergency to be able to overcome the tremendous crisis we face. The greater the political support, the less use the Executive will require of superpowers. In the coming weeks we will see if, in addition to the people, there is someone who supports President Javier Milei.
* Political analyst and master’s degree in Philosophy of Economics from the University of Cambridge.
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