Financial Market Analysis: CAC 40 Index, Interest Rates, Inflation, and Stock Performance – Weekly Review

2024-01-04 17:15:05

The star CAC 40 index gained 38.77 points to finish at 7,450.63 points. The day before, it had experienced its worst session since September, losing 1.58%. Over the week, the decline is still 1.23%.

“Since November 1, we have had markets that have behaved very well. It’s no surprise that they are blowing,” underlines Stephane Renou, financial investment advisor at Milleis Banque. “This adjustment is even rather healthy.”

The same logic applies to state interest rates. After a drastic fall in two months, with the French 10-year bond going from a peak of 3.60% to a low of around 2.40%, they have now risen significantly.

On Thursday, the French 10-year rate ended around 2.65%.

Investors “may have moved a little quickly” on central bank key rate cuts during 2024, believes Mr. Renou.

The consensus of analysts still expects the first rate cuts to be decided in March, but “it is possible that central bankers will wait until the 2% inflation target is reached”, which would not be the case. case until later in the year, he describes.

In France and Germany, inflation over one year in December rose to 3.7%, according to the first data published on Thursday.

In the United States, job creations in the private sector were more numerous than expected in December at 164,000 once morest 114,000 expected by analysts, seeming to show that the labor market is still dynamic, which can cause inflationary pressures.

Furthermore, weekly applications for unemployment benefits remained low, falling from 18,000 to 202,000, a three-month low to the surprise of analysts.

Official employment figures are due Friday. Job creations should be fewer than in November at 162,000 compared to 199,000, according to analysts. The unemployment rate is expected to increase from 3.7% to 3.8%.

False contact for STMicroelectronics

The semiconductor specialist STMicroelectronics fell further by 3.95% to 41.34 euros on Thursday, like all stocks in the European sector. Several analysts, including those at UBS, have been cautious regarding these companies, which risk seeing their outlets thwarted by geopolitical tensions between the United States and China.

Over the week, the stock fell 8.63%, the worst performance on the CAC 40. On the SBF 120, Soitec lost 7.85% to 149.10 euros.

Alstom bounces back

The French railway manufacturer Alstom announced on Wednesday that it had signed a contract worth more than 500 million euros for the construction of a tramway in Al-Ula, a city located in the northwest of Saudi Arabia.

Its action rebounded by 2.42% to 11.23 euros following having fallen by almost 10%, weighed down by the rise in interest rates, a lowering of its price target by the Barclays bank and proceedings before the administrative court. from Lille.

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