“Let us remember that many Russian families, our grandmothers and great-grandmothers had seven, eight or more children. Let us maintain and revive these excellent traditions,” said the 71-year-old. At the World Council of the Russian People at the end of November, he called on young people in Russia to have more children.
Putin, who has ruled for almost a quarter of a century, spoke of the “most serious demographic challenges” facing the country. According to independent demography researcher Alexei Rakscha, Russia’s population fell by around 6.5 to seven million people during his term in office. Putin also set out with the aim of stopping the decline.
Numbers do not show the full extent of the dilemma
Currently there are around 140 to 140.5 million including Crimea, excluding 137.5 to 138 million, Rakscha told the German Press Agency (dpa) in Moscow. And the number will continue to fall. If the trend continues, the population will shrink by a further three million by 2030, he predicts.
The numbers do not show the full extent of the dilemma. Over the years, Russia has benefited from strong immigration from the poor ex-Soviet republics – especially the Central Asian states of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.
After the annexation of the Ukrainian Black Sea peninsula of Crimea in 2014, 2.5 million residents were added. Without these effects, the population decline would be significantly greater. As a result of the annexation of the four Ukrainian regions of Kherson, Donetsk, Luhansk and Zaporizhia as part of Putin’s war of aggression, Russia’s population has increased by another five million people, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu happily reported at the end of December.
Shrinking population devastating for Russia
Still, an aging and shrinking population is devastating for Russia. There are already not enough workers in the country. The unequal distribution of income also ensures that entire areas of land become deserted, especially in the north and east of the country, the vast expanses of Siberia. This is also dangerous for the Kremlin from a military-strategic perspective. In order to compensate for the natural population decline, according to a forecast by demographers Valeri Jumagusin and Maria Winnik from the Moscow Higher School of Economics, between almost 400,000 and 1.1 million people would have to immigrate annually by the year 2100.
On average, a woman in Russia gives birth to fewer than two children. Putin can only be considered a role model for his grandchildren’s generation to a limited extent, because officially the president himself does not have seven or eight, but only two children.
At times Putin was actually able to achieve success
At times, Putin was actually able to achieve success – thanks to higher incomes and greater social security. In addition, the Russian government also took targeted measures to improve the demographic situation until around 2015. Kindergarten places were created, the health system was improved, and the fight once morest alcoholism and tobacco consumption began.
At that time, Putin was relatively efficient in increasing birth rates and reducing death rates, Rakscha also attests. “The mother capital for the second and third children was the most successful measure,” he says. This financial incentive actually served as a motivator for many families to have a second or third child.
The problems of demographic policy began in 2015
But from 2015 onwards, the problems of demographic policy began. That was the last time the mother capital was increased due to inflation. In 2020, Putin stipulated that the maternity capital should be paid out when the first child is born. “In doing so, he pre-programmed the reduction in effectiveness, which is now heading towards zero,” says Rakscha. Financial factors are much less important for the birth of the first child.
In addition, the social situation of Russians has deteriorated drastically over the past ten years. The Russian annexation of Crimea with the subsequent Western sanctions has already depressed the living standards of Russians.
Putin’s great power policy was aimed more at territories than at his own people. The war once morest Ukraine that began in 2022 is not only forcing hundreds of thousands of young men to the front – many of whom have already died – but has also caused an exodus of dissatisfied people who have left the country with their families. In total, it is estimated that there are more than a million people who are temporarily or permanently out of the country – even if there are no reliable statistics on this.
Laws once morest gays, lesbians and other sexual minorities
The return to so-called traditional values and conservative family images that accompanied great power politics might not stop the decline in births. The Kremlin also tried – egged on by the influential Russian Orthodox Church – to establish “traditional” family values with laws once morest gays, lesbians and other sexual minorities. Entering into a heterosexual relationship and having children due to social pressure has a long tradition in Russia. This is internationally criticized by human rights activists as anti-social and does not lead to population growth.
The same thing is now likely to happen once more with restrictions on abortion. Women’s right to abortion has been restricted in various regions of the country for months. Be it the ban on private clinics carrying out such operations, or laws that make “inducing abortion” a criminal offense. In the past 50 years, there has been no example anywhere in the world of abortion bans permanently increasing birth rates, Rakscha points out the statistics.
This year, he estimates, the natural population decline will be half a million people. As a country of immigration, Russia has also significantly lost its appeal among neighboring peoples due to the imperial behavior of its leadership. Two years ago, Putin called population decline one of Russia’s most pressing problems. With the war of attrition in Ukraine, he has only increased this problem.
