Financial dollars wake up: what is happening in the market?

2024-01-04 15:51:00

The trading wheel It started this Thursday, January 4, with financial dollars on the rise, keeping the trend of ayer in which they climbed more than 40 pesos each.

In addition, today the parallel dollar is added to them, which at noon in the city is quoted at $955 for purchase and $1,010 for sale following two days without increases.

For its part, the quote in Banco Nación was adjusted to $831.50 and therefore the gap is 18%. With these values ​​the dollar for expenses in foreign currency with Card worth $1,330.40 and, the dwholesale dollar rose to $811.80.

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Regarding the stock market dollars, Cash with Settlement operated at noon $1.049,17, with which the gap with the official exchange rate it was located in el 29,35%.

And for its part, the MEP dollar is located in the $1.033,56. In this way, this type of change marks a gap 27.4% with the official.

For the financial analyst Elena Alonso It is not so surprising that stock market dollars begin to rise and he pointed out two important factors that promote the rise, on the one hand the strong inflation and the lack of attractive instruments in pesos to hedge; and on the other, the judicial setback due to Milei’s DNU that may delay the changes projected by the national government.

“With the inflation that is being seen, added to the fact that People cannot go to instruments in pesos that cover them, refuge in the dollar ends up being the option that makes us all feel safe, right? ? he indicated in dialogue with PROFIL.

Along these lines, he explained that, as the incentive of the high interest rate in pesos disappears, there begins to be demand for this type of instrument, such as the financial dollar or the blue. “Also the fact of what happened yesterday in court for the DNU, the labor reform, issues that mean that the path, let’s say, that the current government wants, may not go on the rails as they intend and that also impacts the expectations of what may happen,” he added.

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Anyway, according to your point of view The strongest impact is with the issue of inflationNY predicted that the government will have to correct the crawling or devalue once more. “The 50% devaluation when the government started and a 2% monthly increase, compared to an inflation close to 30% in December, is far below the real outlook. So I think that, at some point, so that the gap does not continues to increase, the government is going to have to devalue the official dollar or increase the monthly crawling peg by 2% because in this way they will continue to encourage demand for the official dollar, for example, from the importing sector or exporters will become out of date and not liquidate currencies. Then they are going to have to make a devaluation jump so that the gap does not continue to increase,” he explained.

For his part, Mr. Gastón Lentini added to this view the issue of convertibility that is beginning to appear once more on the market’s radar.

What happened on Wednesday, January 3, with financial dollars

After several weeks of stability, both the MEP dollar and the Cash With Settlement (CCL) began to react. Yesterday, Wednesday, January 3, the dollar rose by $42.26 (+4.3%) to settle at $1,033.56 (gap with the official exchange rate at 27.4%). Meanwhile, the CCL climbed $51.72 (+5.2%) and ended at $1,049.17 (spread 29.4%).

The rise that led to stock market dollars above $1,000 it occurred on the day that the ruling of the National Chamber of Labor once morest DNU 70/2023 was announced, which stopped the labor reforms promoted by the government of Javier Milei.

In this way, financial quotes once once more exceeded, following several days, the free dollar that remained unchanged at $1,005 per bill. It is worth considering that this rise increases the gap with the official exchange rate, since in the case of the MEP it went from 22.3% to 27.4%, its maximum since the devaluation of December 13, and with the CCL it was positioned at 29, 4%, notably above the 7.9% it reached last week.

From Wise Capital they analyzed that the BCRA has highlighted the role of the Spot as a complementary anchor until the fiscal effort is truly appreciated, reaffirming a crawling peg of 2% monthly to “provide a nominal anchor that extends beyond the honesty period of relative prices”.

Regarding crawling, Wise Capital analysts indicated: “We do not believe they can sustain it because inflation will cause the pace of export settlements to slow, and the BCRA needs to accumulate. That is why the exchange rate will need to be adjusted once more,” they predicted. .

On the other hand, from Wise Capital they indicated to be attentive to the BOPREAL “It will be an interesting thermometer, since it would have an implicit CCL between $1,400 and $2,000. If we are guided by the smallest increase and maintaining the gap at 20%, the Wholesale Dollar should be around $1,150,” they said.

The purchase of dollars continues

After yesterday’s session, the BCRA managed to buy USD142 million in the exchange market. Thus, there are now 16 consecutive rounds of purchases by the entity that, since Javier Milei assumed the presidency of the Nation, has already accumulated USD3,095 million.

Developing….

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