2024-01-02 11:00:26
Yesterday, Lebanese Hezbollah carried out several attacks on northern Israel, wounding five soldiers. Israeli air defenses shot down what appeared to be a drone that had crossed the border from Lebanon, and the IDF responded with multiple airstrikes on the party’s positions.
Meanwhile, last Sunday, Tel Aviv began the process of withdrawing its units from Gaza, perhaps in preparation for escalation along the northern border. The Iranian-backed terrorist group is better trained and equipped than Hamas, and has a more extensive and sophisticated network of tunnels, some of which are designed to launch cross-border attacks.
This development mandated the Deputy Secretary-General of Hezbollah, Sheikh Naim Qassem, to declare war and confrontation with Israel, yesterday, Monday, stressing that the latter must stop the war on Gaza in order to stop it in Lebanon.
Confronting the theory of proportionality
On December 6, the US State Department commented in a press briefing by its spokesman, Matthew Miller, on the claim of two mayors and council heads on the border with Lebanon, stating that they would not be returned to their homes until Hezbollah was expelled north of the Litani River. The best option for Israel is to reach a diplomatic solution or arrangement. If this does not succeed, Israel will use all means at its disposal to push Hezbollah through military operations.
Hezbollah fighters attend the funeral of their comrade who was killed in southern Lebanon by cross-border fire with Israeli forces, during his funeral in Markaba on December 21, 2023. (AFP Photo)
Miller explained that one of the things that the United States has made clear from the beginning is that it does not want to see this conflict expand, and this includes expansion into northern Israel. Washington also does not want to see increased military activity between Israel and Hezbollah in northern Israel.
According to the US State Department spokesman, there is still a very real problem, a security problem, facing the Israeli people, and they do not feel safe due to the ongoing missile attacks, not to mention the events of October.
Hezbollah, in its most recent statement through its Deputy Secretary-General, announced that it had taken a decision to be in a state of war and confrontation on the southern front facing Israel, but in a proportionate manner consistent with the requirements of the battle, and if Israel persisted, the response to it would be stronger, according to his description.
Qasim added, “But… threatening Israel, our threats are worthless; Because we will be ready and present, and we did not fight this battle for fun or in vain, but rather we fought it because it was obligatory.”
Sinwar is angry with “Hezbollah”
New information was revealed regarding the “Al-Aqsa Flood” operation, as a report published by the French newspaper “Le Figaro” last Wednesday showed that the idea of this operation had been in place for at least two years, according to the confirmation of a source close to the “Hamas” leadership in Jordan. The source told the newspaper, “This idea was on the horizon for the first time in 2021.”
Pictures of Hezbollah members killed in southern Lebanon amid ongoing cross-border tensions between Israel and Hezbollah are displayed during a funeral in the southern suburbs of Beirut on December 27. (Photo by Anwar Amr/AFP)
Le Figaro quoted Osama Hamdan, a Hamas leader in Beirut, as saying that he learned of the planned attack on October 7 by listening to the news, and that the only person who was informed before the operation was carried out was the deputy head of the Hamas political bureau. , Saleh Al-Arouri, as the latter received a phone call from Yahya Al-Sanwar, asking him to “inform” the Secretary-General of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, regarding the operation half an hour before it was carried out.
Before the attack began, Yahya Al-Sinwar and Muhammad Al-Deif carefully organized some of their preparations. Al-Sinwar appointed new commanders in command of most of the Qassam Brigades, who replaced the commanders known to Israel. In order to camouflage it, the old commanders were kept in their positions, and regarding a month and a half before the operation, Hamas imposed secrecy on its main military commanders and asked them to reduce their mutual contacts.
The newspaper also confirmed that the leader of Hezbollah was angry because Iran was not informed of the Hamas plan, and that Yahya Sinwar and Muhammad Deif were angry that Nasrallah did not use the full force of Hezbollah following the attack. In this context, they sent an angry message. The head of the Hamas Political Bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, even visited Tehran to urge Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to participate in the war, but the leader rejected the request.
These latest events indicate that Hezbollah’s statements and its setting of the battle condition every time are nothing but anesthesia needles for its disciples and the families of its members who are killed by Israeli missiles on a daily basis, whether in southern Lebanon or in Syria, where their number has reached 137 dead, and the war is only a card for the sake of Achieving conditions within the deal to implement Resolution “1701”.
Problems of “Hezbollah”
The Lebanese writer Asaad Abu Khalil, in his talk regarding the dilemmas of Hezbollah’s various types of responses, points out that the political and military calculations facing the party in light of the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas will not lead to the opening of a new front in southern Lebanon, because This will threaten the party’s work strategy from Iraq to Lebanon.
A photo taken from the village of Tayr Harfa in southern Lebanon, near the border with Israel, shows smoke rising near an Israeli site from rockets fired by Hezbollah on December 15, 2023. (Photo by AFP)
As for the possibilities of Hezbollah intervening in direct contact with Israel, the military analyst, Colonel Abdullah Halawa, pointed out in his interview with Al-Hal Net that the party has become first and foremost afraid of American sanctions on its merchants and capital in the world, especially since it has struggled In order to create a financial system that supports it following the collapse of the Lebanese economy.
Nasrallah, according to Halawa, is fully aware that entering into a direct war means setting the party back 20 years, and this explains why he linked the declaration of war to conditions, and this militarily means that this party has no intention of carrying out its threat, but the declaration is nothing but a media capsule intended to deliver a message to two parties.
The first message: It is to the party supporting the party that it still stands by its promises and is not as it is attacked through the media. As for the second message: it is a reassurance to the opposing party that negotiations are ongoing and that the declaration of war will not take place unless the solutions end, which is the most important, according to Halawa.
But will Israel lure Hezbollah into a new war? Here, Halawa denies that Israel wants to open a battle with Hezbollah at this time. He attributes this to the three crises facing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and says that the party is controlling the pace of escalation. And calm on the Lebanese border.
Therefore, Hezbollah’s leadership has complete control over the lack of escalation on the border, and follows a strategy of proportionality, meaning that it does not want to escalate to the extent it deems appropriate for the requirements of the battle, and prefers to maintain silence and ambiguity regarding its plans and intentions regarding the ongoing negotiations in a way that serves its interest.
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