The Freedom Party is heading into this year’s tight election year in Austria as the strongest force in the polls. This is shown by the so-called election trend of the Austria Press Agency (APA). To do this, the APA recorded all national surveys that have been available since 2019 and calculated an average value for the individual parties.
The FPÖ was therefore at the top for the entire year in 2023 when it came to the Sunday question (“Who would you vote for if there were a National Council election next Sunday?”), on average the Freedom Party got around 28 percent (see graphic).
Image: OÖN graphics
Behind them came the SPÖ and ÖVP, mostly in that order. On average over the year, the SPÖ was around 23 percent, the ÖVP remained on average at around 21 percent and was therefore mostly in third place in the surveys.
The Social Democrats experienced a temporary downturn following the hapless election of Andreas Babler as federal party leader at the beginning of June last year. The SPÖ briefly fell behind the People’s Party, but recovered at the end of the month and has remained second in the polls ever since.
There was less movement among the currently ruling Greens and the Neos. Both held between around 9 and 11 percent in most polls.
However, things might get exciting for the small parties. The KPÖ and the Beer Party – although the latter’s entry is not fixed – would have a chance of clearing the four percent hurdle; the survey values were usually around three to four percent. The chances might be good for the communists, especially in the municipal council and mayoral elections in Salzburg. After all, they surprisingly received more than 11 percent of the votes in the Salzburg state elections in April 2023.
FP also ahead in EU elections
The election to the EU Parliament on June 9th might set the tone for the National Council election.
Here too, the Freedom Party is clearly at the top of the polls, most recently with 30 percent. The SPÖ and ÖVP would therefore have to fight for second place with 22 percent each.
However, only three surveys have been published so far, which limits their significance.
These elections are coming up
In addition to the National Council election, which was scheduled to take place at the end of September or beginning of October, the EU election on June 9th is the second major nationwide election this year. In the last EU election in 2019, the ÖVP was the strongest force with 34.6 percent, followed by the SPÖ with 23.9 percent, the FPÖ (17.2 percent), the Greens (14.1 percent) and the Neos with 8 .4 percent. There are also state elections in Vorarlberg and Styria this year.
