2024-01-01 04:29:26
The 2024 election calendar is well filled: the National Council will be re-elected, the European elections are on June 9th. There are also two state elections – Vorarlberg and Styria – as well as local council and mayoral elections in Salzburg and Innsbruck. In the surveys – both for the National Council and EU elections – the FPÖ has been at the top with around 30 percent since the beginning of 2023, behind which the SPÖ and the governing party ÖVP are fighting for second place.
The Freedom Party was in first place in the Sunday question for the whole of last year, with an average of around 28 percent. This is shown by an evaluation of the APA election trend, which includes all published Sunday questions since 2019. Behind them came the SPÖ and ÖVP, mostly in that order. On average over the year, the SPÖ was around 23 percent, the ÖVP remained on average at around 21 percent and was therefore mostly in third place in the surveys.
The Social Democrats experienced a temporary downturn following the rocky election of Andreas Babler as federal party leader at the beginning of June last year. The SPÖ briefly fell behind the People’s Party, but recovered at the end of the month and has remained second in the polls ever since.
There was less movement among the currently ruling Greens and the NEOS. Both held between around 9 and 11 percent in most polls. However, things might get exciting for the small parties. The KPÖ and the Beer Party – although the latter’s entry is not fixed – would have a chance of passing the 4 percent hurdle; the survey results were usually around 3 to 4 percent. The chances might be good for the communists, especially in the municipal council and mayoral elections in Salzburg. After all, they surprisingly received over 11 percent of the votes in the state elections in April 2023.
The election to the EU Parliament on June 9th might point the way. Here too, the Freedom Party is clearly at the top of the polls, most recently with 30 percent. The SPÖ and ÖVP would therefore have to fight for second place with 22 percent each. However, only three surveys have been published so far, which limits their significance.
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