2023-12-31 08:30:00
(CNN) Voters have delivered some significant shocks to global stability over the past year. However, in 2024, it is assumed that this will not be enough.
David Andelman/CNN
According to the British magazine The Economist, countries with more than half of the world’s population will hold elections next year. More than 4 billion people living there will vote.
Looking at elections held around the world over the past two years, several patterns, sometimes horrifying, emerge. Across every continent, voters readily reject long-standing liberal philosophies and fall for the fancy promises of extremists. Extreme people often emerge from among far-right populists.
At present, expectations for dramatic changes are only increasing.
A crucial election year begins in Bangladesh in January. The main opposition party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), which has already staged multiple anti-government demonstrations, has had its leaders imprisoned or exiled. The party is threatening to boycott the vote unless Prime Minister Hasina resigns and transfers power to an interim government ahead of a general election. Hasina is likely to continue her ruthless 15-year rule.
In February, two of the world’s most populous Muslim countries, Pakistan and Indonesia, will hold elections one following another within a week of each other. This is Pakistan’s first general election since the popular but divisive former Prime Minister Khan was ousted due to corruption (he denies any wrongdoing). Although not his candidate, Mr. Khan remains the driving force behind his own party.
The elections to be held in Indonesia shortly therefollowing are expected to be the world’s largest single-day elections. There are over 200 million voters in Japan and 1.75 million overseas. However, the results of the election are unlikely to loosen the grip on power held by wealthy business and military elites.
Elsewhere, the elections in South Africa are perhaps the most telling in the African region. This is certainly the case in the turbulent period since Mandela’s presidency. Two years ago, in the local elections, the African National Congress (ANC), once led by Mandela, received less than 50% of the vote for the first time. This was due to voters becoming disillusioned with the chaos and corruption. Such anarchy was too rampant during the 30 years that the ANC was in power. If this downward trend continues in the 2024 general election, it will be a decisive moment in South Africa’s political history.
If we turn our attention to Europe, nine parliamentary elections will be held there. One of the biggest challenges for the next government in the region will be finding coalition partners and forming a parliamentary majority.
We cannot take our eyes off Portugal’s snap general election scheduled for March. An earlier corruption investigation forced the Prime Minister, who led the Socialist Party government, to step down following eight years in office. This might herald a shift in power to the far-right party Chega (meaning “enough” in Portuguese). Similarly, the right appears to be counting on victory in Austria’s elections scheduled for autumn.
The UK is also scheduled to hold a general election by late January 2025, meaning that British voters in the country are likely to go to the polls at the end of 2024. The result may be the return of the Labor Party to power. The party has been in power for the past 14 years, controlled by the Conservative Party.
Looking back at Latin America, it appears that Mexico will have its first female president. Two female candidates from major political parties have announced their names for the June election. Drugs, crime, and immigration to the United States will be the primary issues in the election. Elsewhere, President Maduro, Venezuela’s highly unpredictable nationalist leader, will take risks in seeking new support. Part of this is the territorial dispute with neighboring Guyana over oil.
But the following five particularly dramatic elections deserve the spotlight.
January 13th, Taiwan: New president born amid US-China conflict
Ruling Democratic Progressive Party presidential candidate Lai Kiyotoku (center) gives a speech in Taipei/Annabelle Chih/Getty Images
The significance of the election results is especially heavy in the current situation where tensions between the Chinese and Taiwanese governments are increasing. The United States remains committed to guaranteeing Taiwan’s democracy.
There are three candidates for the presidential election. Lai Ching-de of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, who has the highest approval rating by a narrow margin, is an abomination to China and has vowed to continue to resolutely protect Taiwan’s sovereignty. This is a position that follows the pledge made by current President Tsai Ing-wen. Hou Youyi of the opposition Kuomintang Party, who comes in a close second, hopes to start negotiations with the Chinese government. Former Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-che of the Taiwan People’s Party, who is slightly behind in third place, has proposed a policy of moving closer to reconciliation while offering a compromise.
If voters choose to maintain the status quo, the Chinese government is expected to increase pressure. China’s official position is that it is a choice between war and peace. The comment was made in response to the collapse of talks in November regarding a single opposition candidate.
March 17, Russia: Putin has no choice.
President Putin’s press conference is shown on an electronic billboard behind women walking in Moscow/Maxim Shemetov/Archyde.com
There is little doubt that President Putin is running an ostensible re-election campaign with the intention of becoming president for life. If he is re-elected, his term will end at 78 years old. He will surpass Soviet leader Stalin to become Russia’s longest-serving ruler since Catherine the Great.
Mr. Putin has almost no chance. So far, there appears to be only one officially recognized opponent. That person is Alexei Nechayev, a businessman who runs a cosmetics company, and who happens to belong to the All-Russian Popular Front, a social group that supports Mr. Putin.
It is quite possible that a reaction once morest this situation might result in large-scale chaos. During the 2018 presidential election, all of Russia found itself in a similar situation. However, hundreds of thousands of people who may have now spoken out once morest Putin have already fled the country during the invasion of Ukraine.
Given Putin’s age, there is a very real possibility that this election might be Putin’s last. An emboldened Mr. Putin may set his own goals following his election and pursue broader and more destabilizing efforts. The goal is to rebuild the Soviet empire. In addition, the risk of direct conflict with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) should not be ruled out.
April and May, India: The world’s most populous country is at a crossroads
Prime Minister Modi speaking at the beginning of the Budget Committee of the Indian Parliament/Sajjad Hussain/AFP/Getty Images
Will the world’s most populous country transform from a vibrant democracy to a nationalist country rooted in Hinduism, moving closer to a theocracy? India’s fateful elections are scheduled to be held over multiple weeks in April and May.
Prime Minister Modi’s first term was devoted to strengthening unwavering Hindu nationalism. Those who suffered the most were the country’s approximately 200 million Muslims and 28 million Christians. The worry is that if Mr. Modi wins, as expected, he will be able to complete the measures he sees as central to his mandate.
Next month, Mr. Modi will inaugurate a vast Hindu temple. The temple stands on the site where a historic mosque (Islamic place of worship) was once destroyed. For Mr. Modi and all Hindus in India, it is a symbolic building that promises a position of dominance.
How will the United States deal with such a person? A person who occupies the center of the emerging world, is an important trading partner, and is also a counterweight to Pakistan. Although it is close to Russia and China, it also acts as a strategic bulwark, limiting the latter’s expansion into the Pacific Ocean. The question is how the United States should respond.
June 6-9, European Parliament: A major shift towards right-wing ideology?
European Commission President von der Leyen (centre) delivering the State of the Union address at the European Parliament/Frederick Florin/AFP/Getty Images
June will be a crucial moment for Europe’s future. The European Parliament will hold its first elections since the UK left the EU in the same month, which is expected to cause great turmoil.
The foundations for a major shift to the right have been laid in recent years, and the movement undoubtedly intensified throughout 2023. The right-wing European Conservative and Reform Group (ECR) may even become the third party in the new European Parliament.
This group of staunch right-wing and EU-skeptics might thwart many of the EU’s more moderate measures. With their support, there is a risk that countries that play a leading role, such as Germany and France, will move further to the right.
This will depend on the following things: More aid to Ukraine, sanctions once morest Russia (already vetoed by Hungary and Slovakia), immigration restrictions, rollbacks on climate change, justice and the rule of law across the EU, and Europe’s commitment to China. Policy shift.
November 5th, USA: The Trump Factor and Beyond
Former President Trump speaks at an election-related rally in Washington, D.C./Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images
Even if Donald Trump is not elected president, the voting and campaign leading up to November 5th threaten to tear American democracy to shreds. And if he is elected, it might have ripple effects far and wide around the world. What state will NATO be in if the US leaves NATO under Trump? Imagine how happy those forces who want to dismantle the entire organization will be.
Moreover, Mr. Trump has so far expressed warm words to all kinds of dictators and would-be dictators. On the campaign trail in New Hampshire on the 16th, he quoted Putin and called President Biden a “threat to democracy.” At the same rally, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Hungarian Prime Minister Orban also praised him. The latter are known as hardline nationalists.
How might these words be translated into action if Trump were to become president? In any case, he has already promised to visit Argentina’s outspoken, radical-right new president, Javier Millay. Millay proposed abolishing the peso and replacing it with the dollar in order to rebuild the economy, and at the same time used chainsaw-wielding performances to appeal for the breaking down of bureaucracy and cuts in government spending.
What kind of horizon the world will be in a year from now will be determined by the billions of voters who come to vote, or who avoid voting. Voters have varying degrees of freedom and transparency, but looking at politicians you can see how much they respect the choices made by the people.
I urge all those who fall into this category to think carefully and vote wisely.
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David A. Andelman is a CNN contributor and two-time recipient of the Deadline Club Award, which recognizes outstanding journalism. He is the author of the diplomatic strategy book “A Red Line in the Sand,” and has worked in Europe and Asia as a correspondent for the New York Times and CBS News. The content of this article is his personal opinion.
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