2023-12-28 12:50:51
It is already in the final stretch last week of 2023 which leaves several bitter aspects in economic matters: it will have three-digit inflation for the first time in 32 years, a level of activity that is not improving and the highest poverty rate in the last 40 years of democracy.
Dante Sica: “In one year we will reach single-digit inflation”
It is also the third week of management of the new government of Javier Milei, which marked its mark with the devaluation of the official dollar, the narrowing of the exchange gap. The recent omnibus law and the controversial deregulatory package of the mega DNU.
From the official perspective, they insist that the coming months will be difficult in terms of price increases and the level of activity, but they trust that from April or later, a slight relief will begin to be felt in economic activity and that this will change expectations. They do not expect large jumps in the level of activity, at most a monthly recovery of up to one percent but sufficient, they discount the teams led by Minister Luis Caputo to improve expectations for the rest of 2024.
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The private sector’s projections do not necessarily coincide with that horizon; In any case, they see a recovery curve that is temporally more distant (if there is one). For example, a recent survey carried out by the Pyme Observatory, coordinated by Vicente Donato, revealed that 75% of small and medium-sized businesses and micro small companies consider that the “Caputo plan” will cause recession and 40% of them Furthermore, he believes that the drop in the level of activity “will last between 1 and 2 years.”
The same report revealed that 58% of the companies interviewed estimate that the drop in their sales during the first half of 2024 will be 30% or more.” There is a more optimistic 36% who considered, according to this survey, that the recession will last only 6 months.
Eduardo Fernandez, vice president of SCOPEemphasized on Canal E that There is a lot of concern among SMEs because “there is no economic plan and the measures that are known, at least until now, have an anti-industrial nature that worries us.”
All in all, there seems to be a strong coincidence of projections in which inflation in December, January and February will not give any respite. For example, heLibertad y Progreso’s projection was 29% for December when there are still a few days left to close the month. It would be the highest since February 1991 and if this is confirmed, the year would end with a rise of 219%, the highest since 1990.
Tension due to price increases: consultants estimate an inflation of 100% for the summer
In the same sense, the economist Lucas Carattini projected that The last month of the year would have a price increase close to 30% although he highlighted that the Central Bank’s drive to accumulate reserves so far in the new administration and around more than 2,000 million dollars might oxygenate tensions in the first days of next year.
Beyond the debates regarding whether or not there will be a recovery curve, when and at what speed, what hurts most on the economic agenda are the high rates of poverty in the country, even in families with formal work, a particularity. that hurts and that is characteristic of the crisis accentuated by the last governments.
LR
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