For CINVESTEC economists, food is always a problem because, in general, there is a reduction in imports, pressured by the reduced availability of currency and not by the reduction in demand, which has led to a shortage of products and caused inflation
Studies carried out by economists at the Center for Economic Research at Universidade Lusíada Angola (CINVESTEC) indicate that exports decreased by 9 billion dollars in the first half of this year compared to the same period last year, leaving 26 billion in 2022 to 17 billion in 2023. According to the report presented yesterday, to which OPAÍS had access, this reduction represents 37% of oil shares.
Diamond exports, on the other hand, reduced from 30% to 27% compared to the same period last year, the average of which has an almost zero contribution to the total variation. The remaining exports registered, in the first half of 2023, an increase of 3% compared to the same half of the previous year, with an increase in exports of goods of around 6% and the contracting of services abroad decreasing by 19%.
Regarding imports of goods and services, they decreased by 17%, compared to the 2022 average, and 10%, compared to the same semester of the previous year, points out the CINVESTEC report. As for imports of everyday consumer goods without fuel, it represents 3.35 billion dollars and fell by 14% due to the reduction in quantities. Fuels, which represent 1.65 billion dollars in the period under analysis, fell 18%, mainly due to falling prices.
It is important to highlight that fuels represent around 33% of imports of consumer goods, while food represents around 21%. For CINVESTEC economists, food is always a problem because, in general, there is a reduction in imports, pressured by the reduced availability of currency and not by the reduction in demand, which has led to a shortage of products and caused inflation.
Income balance
According to the CINVESTEC economic report, the balance of primary income, in the first half of 2023, stood at -USD 4.2 billion, reducing its negative balance in the same proportion (-2%). Interest and profits transferred abroad in the period under analysis fell by 1.3% compared to the 2022 average. Meanwhile, transferred profitability grew residually in year-on-year terms with +0.33 percentage points.
In contrast, the quarterly repatriated profitability of Angolan investments continues to be just 0.1%, with great regularity (0.2% per semester and 0.4% per year). The balance of secondary income reduced the negative balance compared to the 2022 half-year average by around USD 340 million (38%), with transfers from abroad reducing by 56%, and transfers abroad, by 39%.
Economists highlighted that the level of transfers from abroad (USD 6 million), when compared to the 340 million in the same period last year, shows that the country remains very unattractive, and it is not advisable to ease the freedom of capital movement. The reduction of these transfers from a semi-annual average of 563, in 2022, to 340 million in 2023, is in contrast to the reduction from 1,445 to 1,037 of food goods, which caused inflation to continue, even following exchange rate stabilization.
As for international reserves (IR), they continue to fluctuate between 13.5 and 14.5 billion, maintaining some stability since the 1st quarter of last year. The National Bank of Angola (BNA) is more interested in maintaining stable import coverage for around six months, which has improved due to the latter’s reduction. In 2022, economists clarified that the BNA should have created robust reserves, taking advantage of the increase in oil and gas prices. “It did not do so, leaving itself without weapons when the need to stabilize the exchange rate arose.”
BY: Francisca Parente