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Washington releases its last possible tranche of military aid for this year

2023-12-28 06:07:00

Encouraging news for Ukrainian President Zelensky. The United States announced this Wednesday evening the release of 250 million dollars in military aid for Ukraine. This is their last tranche available without a new vote in the US Congress. Negotiations are still slipping between Republican and Democratic parliamentarians on the validation of the 61 billion envelope insisted on by American President Joe Biden and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky.

« It is imperative that Congress act as soon as possible to advance our national security interests by helping Ukraine defend itself », Said Secretary of State Antony Blinken in a press release this Wednesday.

The aid released this Wednesday includes ammunition for air defense systems and anti-tank weapons, according to the State Department press release. “ Thanks for your help, we will win », reacted in the evening the head of the Ukrainian presidential administration Andriï Iermak on X (formerly Twitter).

Last financial aid possible for the moment

However, Senate leaders have already noted that the US Congress will end the year without approving new funds. One more disappointment for the Ukrainian president, in a year marked by the disappointed hope of a major counter-offensive and the increased pressure from Russia on the front.

Ukraine will have to wait until 2024 to obtain new aid from the United States, a setback for Zelensky

The White House had warned that it would be “ running out of resources » for Ukraine « by the end of the year ». “We only have one aid package left” before the funds dedicated to Ukraine “ do not run out », announced on December 18 a spokesperson for the White House, John Kirby. “ When it is sent, we will no longer have authorization (…). And we will need Congress to act without delay », he warned.

The reluctant Republican camp

Volodymyr Zelensky came to Washington in mid-December in person – his third trip to the American capital in a year – to try to increase the pressure. But almost two years following the start of a war which is getting bogged down – and more than 110 billion dollars already released by Congress – the question of the continuity of this support, ” as long as it takes », to Ukraine, is posed with more and more insistence.

Republicans, in particular, began to find the bill too steep. They had conditioned their support for this new package on a drastic tightening of American migration policy. Negotiations on this explosive issue, however, did not end in time.

Aware that the sense of urgency has faded in Washington since the start of the war in 2022, President Biden had asked Congress to combine his request for aid for Ukraine with another of around 14 billion for Israel, ally of the United States in war once morest Hamas. In vain.

The release of aid under debate once more in January

Aware that the sense of urgency has faded in Washington since the start of the war in 2022, President Biden had asked Congress to combine his request for aid for Ukraine with another of around 14 billion for Israel, ally of the United States in war once morest Hamas. So far, in vain.

American parliamentarians return to school on January 8, and the Republican and Democratic leaders of the Senate have only stated their intention to validate this envelope, which includes a military, humanitarian and macro-economic component. It is in the House of Representatives, which must also approve these funds, that things become complicated. Its new president, Republican Mike Johnson, is not opposed, in principle, to extending American assistance, but claims that it is not sufficiently regulated.

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« What the Biden administration seems to want is billions more dollars without adequate oversight, without any real strategy for victory “, he asserted following his interview with Volodymyr Zelensky in mid-December.

The conservative speaker also has to deal with the hard right of his party, parliamentarians who no longer want to send a single cent to Ukraine. These elected officials, close to former President Donald Trump, dismissed the last speaker only a few months ago, accusing him, among other things, of having concluded a “ accord secret » on Ukraine with the Democrats.

During a daily press conference last week, Volodymyr Zelensky also warned that a return of Donald Trump to the White House might have a “ fort impact » on the war in Ukraine. On this subject, the Colorado Supreme Court declared Donald Trump ineligible for the presidency on Tuesday because of his actions during the assault on the Capitol. The former Republican president indicated that he would challenge this court decision with the Supreme Court of the United States.

Russia is counting on the running out of Western aid

Since the start of the conflict, the Kremlin has been banking on the decline in Western aid, and any hesitation from kyiv’s allies reinforces Russia’s belief that its bet will be a winner. Since the fall, Moscow has increased its attacks and wants to strike hard at a time when the will of the West to support Ukraine seems to be weakening. On the front, some 1,000 kilometers long, Russian forces have been gaining ground for several weeks.

Concerning the conflict in Ukraine, the Russian president once once more repeated in mid-December Moscow’s stated objective, namely the “denazification” and the “demilitarization” of his neighbor, without which peace is not possible according to him. He insisted that the solution “will be negotiated or obtained by force”. “There will be peace when we have achieved our goals”, he insisted. However, a new military mobilization in Russia is not currently planned following that of autumn 2022. “Today this is not necessary,” he judged, stressing that 486,000 soldiers were recruited voluntarily this year.

New step by Ukraine in its accession to the EU

Returning from Washington from his visit in mid-December, without having convinced Congress to release the $60 billion, Ukrainian President Zelensky still found cause for satisfaction. The European Union has in fact voted to open negotiations with Ukraine for its accession.

The decision was taken unanimously by 26 countries, in the absence of Hungary, during the European Council in Brussels on Thursday 14 and Friday 15 December. Downside: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán vetoed the financing plan (33 billion in loans and 17 billion in donations) over four years to support Ukraine’s economy and its war effort.

According to Brussels, Ukraine will be able to pay salaries and pensions until March, thanks to the payment in the coming days of the last tranche of 1.5 billion euros of the current EU aid program. And even if Viktor Orbán blocks the EU budget in January, kyiv might benefit from direct aid from member states, several officials indicated, reiterating their support for Ukraine since Russia’s invasion of the country in February 2022. “We will do whatever it takes, for as long as it takes”reaffirmed German Chancellor Olaf Scholz following the summit.