2023-12-25 11:37:30
Global travel prices will increase by more than 30% in 2024, and the depth of your pocket determines the pace of travel. Pictured is the North Pole. (Provided by Sunny Travel)
Today (the 25th) is Christmas, which symbolizes the beginning of the new year. Tourism industry operators analyze that following a year of restructuring, the global tourism market will gradually return to normal next year. However, the haze of the COVID-19 epidemic is still there, coupled with the impact of war and inflation, the future tourism trend has begun to show subtle changes. There have been changes, but the most important key is that the overall travel price has soared by more than 30%, and the depth of consumers’ pockets also determines the pace of travel.
To make up for the three years deprived by the epidemic, you can travel to the ends of the world if you have money
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According to statistics, from January to October this year, Taiwan’s number of overseas trips reached 9.64 million. Compared with 14.56 million trips in the same period before the epidemic in 2019, the overall outbound tourism market has recovered by 66%; travel agencies that closed during the epidemic have also reopened, and even added new ones. More than 100.
Chen Yifu, chairman of Qingtian Tourism Group, analyzed at the end of last year that the three-year epidemic has brought huge changes to mankind. After the lockdown is lifted, many people want to step up and complete their dreams in their lifetime. Therefore, “lifetime events” such as the North and South Pole are High-end products that offer “one trip” will definitely explode. As expected, not only did more travel agencies invest in polar tourism this year, but the overall market also grew by 250%! He also predicts that products that are also listed as “must visit in a lifetime”, including East Africa or Machu Picchu, will still be very popular next year, and everyone hopes to make up for the good time deprived by the epidemic.
At the same time, Chen Yifu also observed that middle school students who had also wasted three years of their prime life due to the epidemic have started to send their children to study abroad, study abroad or graduation trips due to the declining birthrate and parents’ unwillingness to spend money on their children’s studies. The trend is to allow children to connect with the world and expand their minds and horizons in the shortest possible time.
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As for the craze for traveling in groups with relatives and friends this year due to the fact that they are less together with their families and more away from each other during the epidemic, Chen Yifu predicts that next year the fever will gradually subside, and he will turn to choosing his own desires and leaving more space for himself to travel. It is not a place to have fun with classmates or family. Therefore, Chen Yifu also believes that semi-packaged and semi-packaged travel itineraries will begin to rise next year. After the travel agency helps book air tickets and hotels, the rest of the itinerary is arranged by the passengers themselves; or travel to Central Asia or Eastern Turkey, which are less popular but have great Travel to places with special history, culture or architecture will also become increasingly popular.
In addition, before the epidemic, Taiwanese people like to choose a trip abroad. How many countries or cities do they need to visit to meet the CP value? However, following the epidemic, they also just want to simply enjoy the leisure time and food during the journey. Therefore, cruise and river ship products They are also popping up like mushrooms following a rain, and many new ships are being launched from this year to next year.
Norwegian Cruise Line Extraordinaire. (Provided by Sunny Travel)
War + inflation push up prices, and if they can’t catch up, they’ll move to the corners.
However, the most important change is that under the influence of the Russo-Ukrainian War, the Israeli-Palestinian War and global inflation, the overall tourism market price, just like commodity prices, housing prices and global warming, cannot see the tail lights of Mercedes-Benz vehicles. ! Chen Yifu said: “(Original sound) The overall price has indeed increased by at least, really called “at least” 30% between 2019 and 2023! 30%. In a situation where the wallets of all consumers have not increased at the same rate, and when they want to pursue good travel quality, some product lines will inevitably be compromised. If you want everything to be of the highest quality today, many consumers will not be able to afford it when prices soar or local tour fees soar. 』
Take the European route as an example. Before the epidemic in 2019, when people traveled to France, Switzerland or Italy, they were comparing how many five-star hotels they might stay in or how many Michelin-starred meals they might enjoy. However, Chen Yifu pointed out that next year, taking into account both cost and travel quality, consumers may choose to just eat, or stay in a few classic five-star hotels; or they may want to go on a more luxurious trip to Europe. But when your pocket is not deep enough, you can only choose to compromise and go to countries in the corners of Europe, such as Portugal in Southwest Europe, Croatia in Southeast Europe, or the Baltic Sea and Poland in Eastern Europe.
Beautiful view of Croatia. (Provided by Sunny Travel)
Chen Yifu said that the sales of tourism products in these countries have been very strong this year. On the contrary, the tourism boom in core European countries has been delayed. The main reason is that the price increase in these countries is not as explosive as that in core countries. Even though it has also soared by 30%, it is still relatively close to the people. Therefore, Even though local prices are still higher than those in Asian countries, they are still favored by consumers. The main reason is that these places also have European culture, but the prices can meet the needs of staying in five-star hotels throughout the trip.
Chen Yifu, chairman of Qingtian Tourism Group, analyzed the new global tourism trends in 2024 next year. (Photo by Wu Lijun)
Japan becomes the new favorite for global travel, and the exchange rate will affect your wallet next year
It is worth noting that Japan, which has always been the most popular travel destination for Chinese people, still ranks first in Taiwan’s outbound tourism this year, and is expected to continue to dominate the list next year. However, it is not only Taiwan, but also the number of people traveling to Japan from all over the world this year has reached more than 29 million. Exceeding the number of arrivals in 2019, Japanese officials even estimate that there will be 34 million international tourists entering Japan next year!
Huang Qingliang, general manager of Qingri Tourism, pointed out that many tourists to Japan have found that “I have never seen so many foreigners in Japan in my life.” After all, most international tourists to Japan in the past had oriental faces, either from mainland China or Taiwan or South Korea, but this year there are blond Westerners everywhere, even in the countryside. The main reason is the depreciation of the yen, which has resulted in the overall increase in group fares for mid-to-high-end products by only more than 20%. But this factor may change next year. Huang Qingliang said: “(Original sound) But the Bank of Japan already said in early December that it would end negative interest rates. Therefore, in the past one or two weeks, the exchange rate of the Japanese yen has been going up; then they expect that next year, it should see 0.23 or 0.235. So you say that tour fares in Japan should be lower? impossible. Tour fees will only get more expensive! Because according to our cost structure, the heaviest cost is the exchange rate, not the car or the scenic spot, but the exchange rate, and the exchange rate is the most terrible! Because it is 0.21 now. If it really grows to 0.235 next year, your group fee will increase by 7%! 』
Huang Qingliang also explained that since the most expensive air ticket accounts for 50% of the group fee, and the air ticket price has soared by 50% compared with before the epidemic, even in the past, airlines would give one more free ticket for every 15 people in the group. The air ticket is given to the tour leader, but following the epidemic, there is no such discount. When the cost of this air ticket is spread out, the tour fee per person is NT$1-2,000 more.
In short, an epidemic has separated you and me. After the epidemic, we can only meet each other when traveling, depending on the depth of our wallets, and go our separate ways.
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