2023-12-16 19:24:00
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An expert is convinced that the sun is already at the beginning of its maximum activity. He has a clear opinion on super solar storms.
Frankfurt – The sun is becoming more active and is expected to reach maximum activity in 2024, shows an updated forecast from the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) in the USA. Maximum means that the sun is then very active, numerous sunspots can be seen on its surface and charged plasma is increasingly being thrown into space. If the sun hits the earth, beautiful northern lights can occur – but problems with the radio can also occur. In the event of a particularly violent hit, the terrestrial infrastructure can also be affected.
That’s why research uses various space probes to keep a close eye on the sun and can warn of incoming plasma clouds from our star. The astrophysicist Dr. Volker Bothmer, who conducts research at the Institute for Astrophysics at the University of Göttingen, is very familiar with the sun. In conversation with fr.de von IPPEN.MEDIA he shows using graphics: “The sun has more activity in this cycle than in the last cycle.” The solar expert assumes that the current maximum solar activity has already begun. “We are, so to speak, at the maximum in the first phase.”
If you look closely, the sun is very active. (Archive image) © NASA/SDO/AIA/Goddard Space Flight Center
Sun expert: Sun is already at the beginning of its maximum
A solar maximum often has two “peaks”. The time from solar minimum to the first peak lasts approximately three years. The researcher also estimates around three years for the maximum. The time from the solar maximum to the next minimum always takes longer than the rise to the maximum; Bothmer assumes around five years. In total, a solar cycle lasts eleven years. But at the moment it is the solar maximum that is of particular interest. “We now have higher solar activity and the number of solar storms is increasing,” explains Bothmer.
However, the solar storms that are currently occurring are “small storms,” emphasizes the researcher. “For us, these are not huge events, they are completely normal.” However, there are also large solar storms – and they can have huge effects. “You can take oil pipelines, satellite navigation systems, radiation effects on astronauts, on biological systems. Air traffic is disrupted, satellites drop by up to five kilometers, all these effects,” lists Bothmer, but immediately follows up with an all-clear: “In a solar storm, not all processes can, but do not have to, occur at the same time.”
Many factors have to come together for a super solar storm
In general, Bothmer wants to allay the fear of a major solar storm: “There are an incredible number of factors that come together that are needed for a superstorm,” emphasizes the researcher. There are more than 10,000 solar storms in an 11-year solar cycle. “We have around 50 of them that reach very extreme speeds. They don’t all go towards the Earth, they don’t have a suitable magnetic field direction or they hit the Earth at the wrong time of year.” Research observes the strongest solar storms in March, April, September and October.
The strongest solar storms observed to date are the Carrington Event in 1859 and the New York Railroad Storm in 1921. Recently, a research team showed that another superstorm hit Earth in 1872. (tab)
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