2023-12-16 13:49:40
Contrary to forecasts, oil prices collapsed at the end of the year, leading to a drop in fuel prices. That of gasoline has never been so low in a year, and that of diesel since July. A drop which should continue for the end of year holidays.
The reasons for this decline
This drop in fuel prices is the result of lengthy negotiations that took place a long time ago, at a time when global oil prices were quite low. “ It is purchased three to four months before it goes on sale. At that time, the price was particularly low because we were in a context of a sharp slowdown in global growth, particularly in China. And therefore inevitably, less demand for oil leads to a drop in the price on the energy markets », Explained Anne-Sophie Alsif, partner and chief economist at BDO France, an auditing, consulting and accounting firm, interviewed by TF1.
The price of a barrel should therefore continue to fall due to a slowdown in global and Chinese growth. Consequently, the price at the pump is also expected to continue to fall until next year. Many analysts say the opposite. Indeed, Goldman Sachs estimates that Brent prices will be between $80 and $100 per barrel in 2024. UBS, for its part, forecasts a Brent price of around $87 per barrel on average. Bank of America, for its part, is positioning itself on a price of a barrel of Brent at $90 on average.
Will this decline continue for Christmas and in 2024?
Since March 1, 2023, TotalEnergies has implemented a cap on its prices at the pump. Thus, fuel prices at Total stations cannot exceed the threshold of 1.99 euros. All fuels, gasoline and diesel (Diesel Premier B7, Diesel Premier B10, SP95-E10, SP95-E5, Superethanol E85), will still be affected by this measure in 2024, the French oil group announced on September 12. Unleaded 98 and Excellium diesel will, however, not be affected by this price limitation due to their primary quality.
In order to help the French target stations where fuel prices are the lowest, the government has set up an Internet site which also offers fuel price statements by department and fuel type. Price statements are updated daily, helping users target the cheapest service stations.
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