2023-12-15 19:47:24
Credit should continue to expand next year, with an increase above inflation among individuals and companies. This is what the National Association of Credit Bureaus (ANBC) projects.
According to the entity’s assessment, growth among consumers tends to be close to that of this year, in the order of 8.5% to 8.6%, while among companies it is on track to surpass the previous biennium, potentially reaching 7.6%.
Among the factors that might favor an increase in demand and supply of credit, according to Elias Sfeir, president of the association, are the progress in the recovery of family income and the growth in consumer confidence.
“Added to this are structural reforms that have enabled the expansion of competition between financial services and the institutional improvement of credit discipline, for example the approval of the Legal Framework for Guarantees, in addition to growing attention once morest over-indebtedness and advances in the Positive Registry” , points out the executive.
Even with the positive scenario of a fall in the Selic rate and control of the inflation index, Sfeir warns of some points of attention that must be taken into account in relation to credit in 2024.
“The first of them is the public deficit, which if it gets out of control might impact the basic interest rate, which has repercussions on credit conditions, and might depress this expansion movement”, analyzes the president of ANBC.
“Externally, some other factors must be monitored, such as the rollover of the North American debt, which, in the event of difficulty, which is unlikely, tends to increase the rate in the United States and bring negative consequences for the exchange rate, impacting economic movements and impacting inflation. The cost of oil, which influences the cost of transport and energy, for example, is another factor of attention, as are geopolitical tensions, such as conflicts between Russia and Ukraine and, more recently, in the Middle East and Guyana, in Latin America. , bringing uncertainty to the global economic chain”, concludes Sfeir.
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