2023-12-13 18:17:28
◎Reporter Liang Yinyan
The Central Economic Work Conference held recently systematically deployed economic work in 2024. Many brokerages generally believe that the meeting pointed out the direction for economic development next year, and high-quality development is the core theme. “Promote stability through advancement, establish first and then break” indicates a more aggressive policy attitude. “Leading the construction of a modern industrial system with scientific and technological innovation” as the first focus of economic work next year is not only an important way to achieve high-quality development, but also a key measure that embodies “promoting stability through advancement, establishing first and then breaking”.
High-quality development is the last word in the new era
The meeting proposed that “it is necessary to adhere to high-quality development as the last word in the new era, implement the new development concept completely, accurately and comprehensively, and promote the effective improvement of quality and reasonable growth of quantity in the economy.”
The Research Department of CICC believes that the first mention of the meeting is that “adherence to high-quality development must be regarded as the absolute principle of the new era”, to adjust the structure to add impetus to stable growth, and to coordinate the relationship between demand and supply, speed and quality, development and security , while stabilizing growth, we also continue to attach importance to improving the economic structure.
Huatai Securities stated that the meaning of “high-quality development” can be understood from the following aspects: First, high-quality development is the last word in the new era, economic construction is the central task, and high-quality development is the primary task; second, next year’s economic work will focus on Promoting high-quality development, whether it is deepening reforms in key areas or improving the effectiveness of macro policies, is to support high-quality development; third, we must adhere to high-quality development and high-level security and positive interaction, promote high-level security with high-quality development, and High-level security guarantees high-quality development; fourth, the goal of high-quality development includes high-quality development of key manufacturing industry chains and high-quality development of the population.
Sinolink Securities believes that high-frequency words such as “high-quality development”, “reform”, “security” and “industry” correspond to the key economic tasks in 2024 mentioned at the meeting, namely promoting industrial transformation and upgrading, a virtuous cycle of consumption and investment, and continuing to prevent key points. There are four main lines of economic work: sector risks and deepening reforms in key areas.
Financing channels for technological innovation enterprises will expand
This meeting placed “leading the construction of a modern industrial system with scientific and technological innovation” at the top of next year’s key work arrangements, and proposed “encouraging the development of venture capital and equity investment.”
Huatai Securities believes that technological innovation to enhance total factor productivity is the future development direction. The meeting regarded “leading the construction of a modern industrial system with scientific and technological innovation” as the first focus of next year’s economic work. It is not only an important way to achieve high-quality development, but also a key measure that embodies “promoting stability through advancement, establishing first and then breaking.”
Everbright Securities stated that the meeting ranked “leading the construction of a modern industrial system through technological innovation” as the top priority for economic work in 2024. On the one hand, the supply side is accelerating scientific and technological innovation and strengthening source innovation and disruptive innovation; on the other hand, it is increasing support from the policy side, including monetary policy and fiscal policy.
Yan Xiang, chief economist of Huafu Securities, believes that the meeting clearly stated that “encouraging the development of venture capital and equity investment” is of great significance to the financial industry and will be an important part of accelerating the construction of a financial power.
In Yanxiang’s view, using technological innovation to promote industrial innovation requires better strengthening the dominant position of enterprises in technological innovation. Enterprises are the most active force for innovation and the main body of practice that accelerates the formation of new productive forces. Enterprises are the main recipients of R&D investment. To strengthen the main role of enterprises in scientific and technological innovation, they need to give full play to the function of financial support for scientific and technological innovation. The meeting proposed that “encouraging the development of venture capital and equity investment” is of great significance, and it is expected that financing channels for technological innovation enterprises will be expanded.
Opportunities in the A-share market will outweigh risks in 2024
With the convening of the Central Economic Work Conference, industry insiders believe that investors’ expectations for economic growth in 2024 are expected to be boosted. Considering that the current valuations of major indexes in the A-share market are at relatively low historical levels, the opportunities in the A-share market outweigh the risks.
The Research Department of CICC believes that the Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the promotion of Chinese-style modernization, clearly focused on economic construction and focused on implementation and response, which has positive significance for improving market risk appetite and boosting confidence. Looking to the future, the improvement of China’s domestic growth momentum in 2024 requires attention to the impact of long-term structural trends. There is still room for further increases in countercyclical adjustment policies, and the external environmental factors that restrict the market are also expected to improve. A series of signals such as current valuation levels, transactions, and listed company behavior indicate that the A-share market is at a historical bottom. With the subsequent economic fundamentals, policy environment, and external factors, there may be cyclical improvements. There is no need to be pessimistic regarding the current position. The A-share market Opportunities outweigh risks in 2024, and the pace is expected to stabilize and then rise. Recently, attention will be paid to the impact of the key tasks proposed by the Central Economic Work Conference on related fields.
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