2023-12-13 04:58:42
Your trip to the American continent is being quite uncomfortable for Volodymyr Zelensky: On Sunday, the Ukrainian president attended the inauguration of the new Argentine head of state, Javier Milei. He coincided in a row of seats with none other than the Hungarian prime minister, Viktor Orbán. A 21-second video of a conversation between both statesmen is circulating on the Internet. Their words cannot be heard, but their body language makes it clear: even in distant Buenos Aires, Ukraine and Hungary do not understand each other.
Both interlocutors then tried to clarify the scene. Zelensky assured that he had explained Ukraine’s European interests to Orbán “as openly as possible.” While the Hungarian Prime Minister’s spokesman stated that Orbán had informed Zelensky of the “continuing discussions” between EU representatives regarding the possible accession of Ukraine.
This Thursday and Friday (December 14 and 15), EU heads of state and government want to discuss, among other things, another €50 billion aid package and the start of formal accession negotiations with Ukraine. But Hungary recently even threatened a veto.
Ukraine in a difficult situation
In this second winter of war, Ukraine finds itself in perhaps the most difficult situation since the start of the Russian invasion in February 2022: militarily, the last few months have brought more attrition than gains in territory. Wives and families of soldiers recently protested in kyiv to demand a longer break from the front following 21 months of war.
President Zelensky faces internal criticism, including from kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko. And while the world’s attention has largely shifted from Ukraine to Gaza, the promise of more weapons and aid packages – likely vital to Ukraine’s survival – is also crumbling.
In the midst of all this, Hungary has actively taken a stand once morest the extension of military aid. The motives of Viktor Orbán, who just a month ago allowed himself to be praised for his “good relations” with the Russian president Vladimir Putin, are not clear. “The only sense in which I can interpret Hungary’s position on the Ukraine issue and many others is that she is once morest Europe and once morest everything that Europe stands for,” said Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis. .
Orbán with advantage at EU summit
Markus Kaim, a researcher at the Political and Security Foundation (SWP), describes Orbán’s threats on the eve of the EU summit as “very dangerous.” The Council’s next decision depends on the principle of unanimity: “If Orbán closes himself to Ukraine’s accession prospects, the others will be able to do little. Therefore, he has the upper hand, directly and indirectly,” Kaim tells DW
If there is no positive decision, it would be extremely demotivating for the people of Ukraine, warned Foreign Minister Dmitro Kuleba on the sidelines of a meeting with his EU counterparts in Brussels.
EU foreign ministers finally approved a proposal from the European Commission to transfer 900 million euros to Hungary, without preconditions, to address the energy crisis. Markus Kaim sees this as an opportunity to reach a deal, under which Hungary might, in return, support the next aid package for Ukraine at the EU summit later this week. “If necessary, the issue of candidate status for EU membership might be postponed,” Kaim emphasizes.
Unstable US support
But Hungary also appears to be pushing once morest aid to Ukraine in another political scenario: according to the British newspaper The Guardian, Hungarian diplomats wanted to meet with Republican Party politicians in Washington earlier this week. Volodymyr Zelensky also plans to meet with Republicans led by the leader of the House of Representatives, Mike Johnson, on whom greater support for Ukraine depends.
After the meeting with Orbán in Buenos Aires, this might be a second uncomfortable debate for Zelensky, on his trip to the United States: almost eleven months before the elections for the American presidency, the House of Representatives and a third of the Senate, Donald Trump and his “MAGA” (“make America great once more”) faction are setting the course for the Republican party: they are hostile to the Joe Biden administration’s massive aid to Ukraine.
Biden had already requested a new tranche from Congress in October, but, so far, approval or even a regular budget has failed because of the Republicans. In addition to $61 billion (regarding €56.6 billion) for Ukraine, the package also includes aid for Israel and more restrictive treatment for migrants at the southern border of the United States. However, Republicans are calling for a more far-reaching adjustment.
Biden “might easily break the Gordian knot by telling Republicans: I will please you on immigration legislation,” says SWP scientist Markus Kaim. “But he doesn’t want that.”
“First sign” of Trump’s possible election
It remains uncertain whether Zelensky will be able to bring regarding change in Washington or whether Republicans will maintain their resounding no to support for Ukraine. “Europe would be challenged,” says Kaim: “It would be the first sign of what many fear following a re-election of Donald Trump: the United States will no longer be the guarantor of the international security order. So the distribution of the burden would have to be readjusted between the US and Europe”.
In October, Orbán had a long conversation with Vladimir Putin in Beijing. Image: Sputnik/Grigory Sysoyev/Pool via REUTERS
A final “no” from Republicans in Washington or a Hungarian veto at the EU summit would certainly further heighten Ukraine’s concerns. The German Minister of State for Europe, Anna Lührmann, who attended the meeting of EU foreign ministers instead of the foreign minister Annalena Baerbockwho was attending the world climate conference, has already announced that Germany will double military support to Ukraine by 2024, from four to eight billion.
(rml/ers)
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