2023-12-12 18:16:53
On Monday, the parliament in Warsaw expressed its confidence in the old and new prime minister. The expectations are huge. Why Donald Tusk will come under pressure from various sides without rapid success.
Donald Tusk was elected head of government on Monday.
Piotr Molecki / Imago
Poland has had a government once more since Tuesday – actually. However, the vote of confidence planned according to the government declaration by Prime Minister-designate Donald Tusk has not yet taken place: a member of the right-wing extremist Confederation attacked the Hanukkah candlestick set up in the entrance area of parliament in honor of the Jewish festival with a fire extinguisher. With that he blew out the candles. The meeting was suspended for hours because of the anti-Semitic incident.
The delay is just the latest in a long series since the October 15 general election. The opposition alliance under Tusk won this thanks to a record turnout of over 70 percent, following an extremely toxic election campaign. The change of power and the political maneuvers since then have greatly mobilized Poles: hundreds of thousands of people are watching the parliamentary sessions on YouTube, jokingly called “Sejmflix,” on computers and even in cinemas.
This week the tension has reached its climax: On Monday, the right-wing ruling party PiS clearly missed a majority in the lower house, clearing the way for the new government. When 248 of 460 MPs expressed their confidence in Tusk in the evening, as had been expected for weeks, the PiS strongman reacted like a spectacularly bad loser: “You are a German agent,” hurled Jaroslaw Kaczynski once morest his nemesis.
Poland’s new government has a clear majority
Distribution of seats in the Sejm (lower house)
460 seats
Lewica (Left Alliance)
26
Seats
–23
Citizens’ Coalition (liberal-conservative)
157
Seats
+23
Third way* (centrist)
65
Seats
+35
PiS (right-wing nationalist)
194
Seats
–41
Confederacy (right-wing extremist)
18
Seats
+7
Power sharing in a heterogeneous coalition
Tusk’s government statement on Tuesday was also regularly interrupted by hecklers. The 66-year-old tried to find the right tone in a politically deeply polarized landscape: He promised his supporters that he would “clean up the Augean stables” that the previous government had left behind. At the same time, he called for reconciliation: “Poland is only half as big when divided.”
Even if the PiS is unforgiving towards the new government, it represents broad sections of society. Tusk’s Citizens Coalition (KO) is clearly the strongest force, but it cannot dominate at will. In particular, the moderate-Catholic Third Way party alliance performed unexpectedly well, while the left-wing Lewica was disappointing. The KO ministers receive half of the 26 positions in the cabinet, the partners the rest, including a deputy head of government each.
Polish freedom hero Lech Walesa (front) listens to Tusk’s speech in parliament along with former and future ministers.
Pawel Supernak / EPA
Tusk has secured crucial areas for his party, including the Interior Ministry, finance and foreign relations. Radoslaw Sikorski, a politician who is as well connected internationally as he is controversial in Poland, will once once more become Foreign Minister. The Third Way, which brings together moderately conservative, rural and ecological forces, focuses on the areas of defense, agriculture and climate. Lewica receives the education and family departments.
The particularly exposed Ministry of Justice, however, has transferred the new government to the non-partisan former civil rights commissioner. Adam Bodnar will be in particular focus, as he has to try to get the judiciary, which was thrown into chaos by the PiS’s judicial reforms, to function more or less properly once more. Allianz has always made it clear that this is one of its most important priorities. But she faces huge problems and a hostile president with veto power.
Brussels welcomes Tusk like an old friend
During the election campaign, PiS’s opponents promised to cleanse the state apparatus of its loyalists. However, it will likely be difficult to carry out this in the public media, state-affiliated companies and authorities using legally sound means. When it comes to socio-politically sensitive issues such as abortion or family policy, there is only a very fragile consensus within the heterogeneous new government coalition.
In order to achieve rapid success, Tusk should initially concentrate on improving relations with Brussels. As a former EU Council President, the 66-year-old enjoys a lot of goodwill – at the end of October, Ursula von der Leyen received him as if he were already Prime Minister.
Old acquaintances: Donald Tusk and Ursula von der Leyen in Brussels at the end of October.
Johanna Geron / Archyde.com
For the time being, more than 110 billion euros of EU funds due to Poland remain blocked due to the dispute over the rule of law. Polish media have been speculating for weeks that Brussels might release a first tranche of several billion soon following the new government takes office as a gesture of goodwill.
Tusk himself hopes that President Andrzej Duda will swear him in on Wednesday so that he can take part as an official at the EU summit in the second half of the week. After the PiS had scared off partners and played a “nightmarish game of national isolation”, his government would act in a solution-oriented manner. “Poland will take the leadership position in Europe that it deserves,” promised the new Prime Minister in his speech.
Tusk is not an EU turbo
In Brussels, expectations of the new government are correspondingly high: it is hoped that the more constructive line in Warsaw will not only help to ease relations with Germany, but also to significantly advance the further development of the European Union, which has often been blocked in recent times.
However, Donald Tusk is unlikely to want to present himself as an EU turbo. Before and following the election, he repeatedly emphasized the importance of Polish sovereignty and rejected new powers for the European Parliament, for example. The discourse in Poland has changed, and simply because of the strong opposition from the PiS, he will do everything to avoid being seen as a stooge of foreign forces.
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