2023-12-06 22:15:05
Some operators of exchange market They estimate that the devaluation of wholesale dollar It will be imminent next Monday, as soon as Javier Milei assumes the presidency. It is estimated that the wheel might open in $500 per unit.
Through social networks, they assured that they are already operating with the official dollar at that price for the first business day of next week. The values that are handled are between 24% and 37.5% greater than $363,70 which was quoted this Wednesday.
«Attention devaluation: wholesale dollar negotiated at $500 with settlement on December 11, for US$2 million«said an operator this Wednesday in his X account.
These are a few operations (barely 3% of the US$302 million traded “in cash” during the day) They agreed from $450 to $500 per dollar in SIOPEL, the system of Electronic Open Market (MAE) in which the official exchange rate negotiations are carried out.
These prices, in turn, are between 23% and 30.6% lower than the price of $650 with which there was strong speculation in recent days, following a report from a stock exchange house -Bull Market Brokers- belonging to the libertarian Ramiro Marra, which raised the possibility of a devaluation in two stages to try to reduce its foreseeable impact on prices.
However, some currency analysts warn that it would be a mistake to consider these operations as a sign regarding the future level that the official dollar will have from next week. “It is purely an interest rate business,” explained Nicolás Merino, from ABC Mercado de Cambios.
«They are operations with a closing date of Monday. They take the risk«, indicated sources close to the Central Bank. Therefore, the devaluation of the peso will not necessarily be validated in these values; they may be higher (as indicated by the futures market) or lower.
Dollar and devaluation: how the exit from the stocks is planned
In this context, speculation regarding the magnitude of the devaluation that Javier Milei will apply leads the financial market to analyze what will be the “future gap”. That gap is the difference between the new official dollar and financial onessuch as cash with settlement and the MEP.
Analysts expect that both options will continue to operate above the official dollar for a period that they cannot estimate so far. At the same time, they argue that the future dollar, for the end of Decemberaims to stabilize at $740a price that implies a 100% devaluation in the official exchange rate: thus, the “future gap” would be located around 33%.
Bull Market estimated that there might be two exchange rate jumps: one this month, for bring the official quote to between $640 and $650 (value that was also estimated by the designated Minister of the Interior Guillermo Francos) and another in February, which It would be the “definitive leap of convergence”.
Consequently, in a few more days the magnitude of the devaluation will be known: as it turned out, the designated Minister of Economy Luis Caputo points out that, to begin with, the official dollar registers a strong risewhile Milei would have a more conservative stance.
This week it was learned that Caputo had obtained the approval of cereal exporters to advance the settlement of foreign currencies for regarding US$5,000 million, during the first days of the new management. With that money, plus other disbursements that might come from the IMF and Arab countries, the new Government would seek to contain possible overflows of the official dollar.
The Central Bank’s reserves accumulate a red of US$216 million in just three days of December, hence the need to obtain foreign currency.
Dollar and devaluation: analysts estimate that exchange rate unification will be rapid
The economist Aldo Abram estimated that “in one or two weeks” the Government of Javier Milei will be able to unify the exchange rate, and then “begin to get out of the trap”.
«It is necessary to get out of the trap as soon as possible so as not to continue killing the Central Bank“said the director of the Freedom and Progress Foundation, who estimated that this exit “might take almost all of 2024.”
For Abram, in reality there will not be a devaluation, but a “rearrangement of the exchange rate”.
«The peso is already depreciated. This is reflected in the value of parallel dollars. The Central Bank uses the stocks so that the loss of purchasing power is not reflected in the official dollar,” explained the economist.
In his opinion, the official exchange rate “is going to be below the parallels. And from there, with a free value, the incoming Government will be able to begin to dismantle the tangle of regulations, restrictions and patches that the stocks have.
With information from Argentine News, Ámbito and La Nación
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