2023-12-01 23:00:00
“Overtime for tech stocks?!”
●Will the U.S. market push toward new highs?
The Nikkei 225 stock average continued to decline, reaching its highest level following the bubble burst on November 20th, but plummeting at the close. This triggered a scramble for high prices. This year, following reaching the 33,000 yen level several times, the price has been on the decline, and there is a feeling that it has become a wall for the top price, but this time as well, it has been pushed back by reversal selling and profit-taking selling. It looks like it’s been done.
Here’s the problem. Many investors must have thought that a reorganization was inevitable, but surprisingly, that may not be the case. In fact, if the price had closed higher on December 1st over the weekend, there would have been stronger expectations for a comeback, but at the time of writing, the price was slightly lower at the preliminary stage, and it appears that the decisive battle has been postponed to the second week of December.
Now, from the point of view of Yajirobee’s theory, factors such as US interest rates, US stock prices, the dollar/yen, the dollar index, and the US economy were all in a delicate balance, but now we are starting to see major changes. . Many factors began to reverse.
However, this balance is still maintained. why. That is the rise in US stock prices. This one thing is supporting me. Conversely, if this stock price collapses, everything will return to its original state.
The strength of US stocks is stronger than expected. The New York Dow was thought to have hit a large ceiling in 2022, but expectations are growing that it may surpass this. That’s because it’s only regarding $1,000 away from the current level.
●The market always seeks new stocks
So, under these market conditions, how should we view the Tokyo market, which continues to tread water?
The key is the short-term trends of overseas buyers. The reason why the Nikkei 225 stock average is still reluctant to fall is because of their buying. Will they use their strength to buy higher prices from here? You can’t take your eyes off the movements of index futures here.
In theory, stock prices are determined by the amount of money. Corporate profits are often discussed, but this is a matter of results. When a large amount of money enters the country, companies naturally become richer and stock prices begin to rise. No matter how much money the Bank of Japan distributes, if it flows overseas, that is, if there is a large capital flight, stock prices will not rise.
However, given the Bank of Japan’s easing policy and the conditions that are creating conditions for money to flow into Japan from overseas, it is safe to assume that stock prices will rise even if left unchecked.
What are you currently looking for? If we assume that U.S. stocks will surpass their 2022 highs, we should see an extension of the stocks that have been active over the past two years. In other words, growth stocks will probably continue to take the lead. After that, so-called value stocks will take over. However, the market always demands new stocks. We’ll be looking at stocks one following the other, but at this level, stocks that are lagging behind will be the ones to watch.
In the short term, Kawasaki Kisen is one of the most popular carriers. <9107> [東証Ｐ]Tamron as a high-tech laggard <7740> [東証Ｐ]and Kyudenko related to Silicon Island Kyushu. <1959> [東証Ｐ]Nishi-Nippon Railway <9031> [東証Ｐ]There seems to be something interesting regarding it.Marubeni, a trading company, is a successor candidate. <8002> [東証Ｐ]car honda <7267> [東証Ｐ]From real estate to Tokyu Fudosan Holdings <3289> [東証Ｐ]General Heavy Industries to Mitsubishi Heavy Industries <7011> [東証Ｐ]I would like to pay attention to such things.
Diary for December 1, 2023
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