2023-11-30 03:18:01
CHEORWON, South Korea (AP) — Not far from the great green mountains that rise along the world’s most heavily armed border, dozens of combat engineers from South Korea and the United States built a floating bridge to transport tanks and armored vehicles across a lake, all within range of North Korean artillery.
For seven decades, allies have held annual exercises like this latest one to deter any North Korean aggression. The alliance with the United States has allowed South Korea to build a powerful democracy, and its citizens trust that Washington will protect them if Pyongyang takes any action related to its dream of unifying the Korean peninsula under its own rule.
Until now.
North Korea’s repeated threats to launch nuclear weapons once morest its enemies and its tests of missiles designed for pinpoint strikes once morest U.S. cities have caused South Koreans to lose faith in Washington’s promise to defend them.
The fear is that an American president would hesitate to use nuclear weapons to defend South Korea knowing that North Korea might respond with a nuclear attack that would kill millions of Americans.
Regular polls show that a solid majority of South Koreans, between 70% and 80% in some polls, favor their country developing atomic weapons or asking Washington to return the tactical nuclear weapons it removed from the nation. in the early 1990s.
“I think one day they can abandon us and go their own way if this works better for their national interests,” said Kim Bang-rak, a security guard in Seoul, referring to the United States. “If North Korea bombs us, we should attack them equally in retaliation, so it would be better for us to have nuclear weapons.”
How South Korea handles the nuclear issue might have important implications for the future of Asia, because it might jeopardize the alliance between the United States and the South Koreans and threaten a delicate nuclear balance that has maintained a fragile peace. in a dangerous region.
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U.S. officials are convinced that any attack on Seoul by North Korea’s 1.2 million-strong military would be met with an overwhelming response.
When asked recently regarding the South Korean public’s support for creating its own nuclear force, General Mark Milley, then the top U.S. military officer and now retired, responded: “The United States would prefer there not be one.” proliferation of nuclear weapons. We think they are dangerous by their very nature, obviously. And we have extended our nuclear protection to both Japan and South Korea.”
However, that has not been enough to calm concerns in South Korea.
In January, South Korea’s conservative president, Yoon Suk Yeol, broke a long-standing taboo when he said his nation might “develop our own nuclear weapons if the situation worsens.”
At a summit in Washington in April, Yoon and U.S. President Joe Biden agreed to the Washington Declaration, in which Seoul pledged to remain in the Non-Proliferation Treaty as a non-nuclear weapon state, and the United States said that will increase consultations on nuclear planning with its ally. He also signaled that he will send more nuclear assets to the Korean peninsula as a show of force.
Part of the concerns in Seoul can be traced back to Donald Trump’s presidency, and his possible re-election in 2024.
Trump, when he was president, indicated on several occasions that the alliance, far from “ironclad,” was transactional. While seeking closer relations with North Korean ruler Kim Jong Un, Trump demanded South Korea pay billions of dollars to keep U.S. troops on its territory and questioned the need for military exercises. of the United States with South Korea, noting that they were “very provocative” and “extremely expensive.”
“No one can say with 100% certainty” that a U.S. president will order nuclear strikes to defend Seoul if it means the destruction of an American city, said Wi Sung-Iac, a former South Korean nuclear envoy who opposes indigenous atomic weapons, during an interview in his office in Seoul.
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There is also fear in Seoul regarding North Korea’s extraordinary advances in weapons.
North Korea, which is one of the poorest countries in the world, may currently have an arsenal of 60 nuclear weapons and has declared that it will deploy “tactical” missiles along the Korean border, highlighting its intention to equip them with lower power nuclear weapons.
Russia’s war once morest Ukraine may also be showing South Koreans that even nations that are friendly might hesitate to help a country fighting a nuclear-armed enemy.
“We certainly need nuclear weapons. Basically, peace can only be maintained when we have the same power (as our enemy),” said Kim Joung-hyun, an office worker in Seoul. “If you look at the war between Russia and Ukraine, Ukraine cannot cope with the Russian invasion. on its own, and has to ask other countries for weapons.
Opponents of South Korea having nuclear weapons pointed out that strong public support for the weapons probably does not take into account the high costs, nor the damage to relations with ally Washington and vital trade with neighboring China.
Some support a less drastic option.
“We have no choice but to bring American tactical nuclear weapons to the Korean Peninsula,” Cheon Seong-whun, a former presidential adviser to a previous conservative government, said in an interview. That, he noted, would allow South Korea to use those weapons if North Korea uses its tactical nuclear weapons, but would not affect the alliance with Washington.
The Washington Declaration, meanwhile, has reassured many in Seoul, according to Richard Lawless, a former senior U.S. State Department and CIA official who handled nuclear proliferation in Asia.
However, Lawless noted in an email that “some senior politicians and many in the public” remain “deeply convinced” that the only real way to stop a nuclear-armed North Korea is for South Korea to have its own nuclear weapons capacity. “That concern is mostly under the surface now, but it persists and might resurface with some passion.”
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Seoul correspondent Hyung-jin Kim contributed to this report.
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The Associated Press receives support for its nuclear security coverage from the Carnegie Corporation of New York and the Outrider Foundation. The AP is solely responsible for all content.
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