2023-11-26 18:24:22
The Argentine president, Alberto Fernández (left), and the elected president, Javier Milei, met on Tuesday to talk regarding the transition.
Photo: Presidencia de Argentina/EFE – MARIA EUGENIA CERUTTI
It has been said that Javier Milei’s victory in Argentina marks a change of era, since with his victory at the polls he distanced Peronism from power, which is now entering into the task of redefining itself as an opposition force. His surprising rise, which took flight in the August primaries and consolidated with a strong advantage last week once morest Sergio Massa in the last battle for the Presidency, has also left its mark on the region. In fact, Jair Bolsonaro and Donald Trump were happy for him and congratulated him. Milei “would really make Argentina great once more,” said the former US president, while the Brazilian, who will attend the inauguration in Buenos Aires on December 10, applauded a victory for “honesty, progress and freedom.” , and assured that “he has a great job ahead of him, which goes beyond Argentina.” In fact, both Bolsonaristas and Mileistas have suggested that the Argentine’s victory would be the opening for an eventual return to power of Trump and Bolsonaro in the coming years.
But while that happens, because there is still time and there are several things to see, what is being talked regarding now is that Milei, like others, represents “a rebellion once morest the ruling parties”, or at least that is what Matías Franchini believes. , professor of international relations at the Universidad del Rosario, who confesses that it is a thought that haunts those who dedicate themselves to reflecting around the region: “Latin American societies are tired and do not trust their authorities,” in a post-pandemic context, in the midst of a decade of lack of economic growth and security problems. And there he mentions, for example, the case of Chile, where a left-wing government, that of Gabriel Boric, was elected following the social outbreak of 2019 and, furthermore, where a constituent assembly of the same line was established. Then, a year and a half later, it was replaced by a right-wing one, which is awaiting the vote on the project in December.
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It seems that the electorates in Latin America are punishing the ruling parties, and Fernando Dopazo, an Argentine political consultant, agrees with this: “This is more than left-right logic. This must be thought of in an official-opposition logic. From 2002 to 2015, which we might say is the commodities boom, which favored Latin America, the re-election rate of the ruling party was 56%. From 2015 to now, counting all the presidential elections, we only have two aspirations of the ruling party that achieved continuity: in Ecuador, when Lenín Moreno succeeded Rafael Correa, beyond the political fight between them, and now with the Colorado Party in Paraguay, where Santiago Peña is succeeding Mario Abdo. That is, 80% of the elections were in the hands of the opposition.” This occurs just when societies are increasingly demanding and feel even more unprotected. Hence, according to him, “those alternatives that represent some type of change are empowered,” among them Milei.
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But he, the Lion or the Fool, as some call him, does not break the pattern, rather he continues it. “This is not regarding Latin America choosing the left, but regarding Latin America choosing the opposite of what already exists,” says Franchini, and this has already been seen with Bolsonaro in Brazil and with Nayib Bukele in El Salvador, who is now He is trying to break down constitutional barriers to be re-elected and stay in power. That is, they are people who perceive themselves outside the political system or who at least offer a discourse that separates them from the ruling class. That is why he believes that the message behind this is one of concern and makes current governments, including Gustavo Petro’s in Colombia, think regarding what would happen if citizen demands are not met in the coming years.
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For his part, Argentine political scientist Julio Burdman considers that “governments have to think of themselves as part of larger arrangements. In general, between the 90s and 2000s, the idea had been established that continuity was necessary to guarantee policy stability, but if Latin America understands as a region that its governments have one mandate, then it becomes necessary. the culture of agreement and continuity between dissimilar governments. “This way the policies would have duration, beyond a presidential term.” In the midst of this, he recognizes that Milei identifies with Bolsonaro and Trump, yes, but also with the Vox Party in Spain and with José Antonio Kast in Chile, whom Borci defeated at the polls in 2021. That is why he dares to say that The Argentine feels part of an international right-wing wave, where he has found a political identity that supports him.
However, he assures that Milei, beyond Bolsonaro and all those figures, is better understood from his “Argentine peculiarity, since he is indebted to a demand for economic solutions.” He is an economist and became famous precisely for proposing effective solutions to major problems, such as inflation and lack of dollars, as well as financial instability and low income. “I don’t know if they voted for him so much because he looked like the Brazilian,” says Burdman, “I think they voted more for his proposals and his promises.”
Meanwhile, perhaps, as Dopazo mentions, the most recent election in Argentina leaves a greater lesson for Latin America: “Look for governments that are up to the task, that begin to provide answers. The commitment to change is not a blank check.”
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