2023-11-25 22:30:00
In the equation which opens in the National Assembly, the forum signed by 17 LR deputies that publishes La Tribune Sunday is something to take into account. It is the sign that the 62 elected Republicans at the Palais-Bourbon will approach divided the examination of the bill on immigration in the law committee from tomorrow and in the hemicycle from December 11.
In this text (read here), the 17 signatories clearly display their differences with the strategy of frontal opposition adopted by Éric Ciotti and Olivier Marleix. The president of the party and the head of the group in the Assembly are critical of the version of Gérald Darmanin’s text largely reworked by LR senators before being adopted on November 14. They call it ” solid “, showing their satisfaction with the rewriting of the provision on professions in tension. Éric Ciotti and Olivier Marleix made a revision of the Constitution to allow the organization of a referendum on migration issues a ” prior “. “This necessary constitutional development cannot justify rejecting concrete legislative improvements,” believe for their part the authors of the column, on the initiative of the deputy for Seine-et-Marne Jean-Louis Thiériot, highlighting their “constructive spirit to achieve a point of balance which serves the interest of the French”and now making it impossible for the Ciotti-Marleix duo to file a motion of censure.
Within the executive, this first crack which appears among Les Républicains will be seen as a very positive point. As during the pension reform, calculators are in fact out once more. How can we get the text on immigration adopted when the Macronist camp is 39 votes short of reaching an absolute majority? Will it be necessary to use 49.3 as in the spring? The suspense will last until the end of the debates.
Limit losses
Since the beginning of this fall, Gérald Darmanin has not missed an opportunity to assert this: “My method is not to be rigid. » This is what he wanted to show to the Senate by accepting a large rewriting of his text, so that it might be adopted. In the Assembly, where he will once more be on the front line, he does the same. There are three challenges.
The first is to win votes from LR deputies, while their party will play a big role in the affair. The Minister of the Interior is actively working on this. He is not the worst placed to do so: he himself comes from the Republicans; he maintained strong relationships there. The Minister of the Interior is making a bet. Unlike that on pensions, its repressive text is widely supported by the French. The Republicans will therefore, according to him, have the greatest difficulty in rejecting him. “Opinion will force you to vote for the text”, Gérald Darmanin recently said to Éric Ciotti. If he exchanges with him, he has no relations with Olivier Marleix.
His second challenge is to ensure that a large part of the Liot group, made up of 21 overseas members, regionalists, centrists, etc., supports his bill. During the pension reform, their virulent opposition was not without consequences. In recent months, the tenant of Place Beauvau has made a lot of gestures towards them. His third mission is finally more interior. It must limit losses in the majority. If the Horizons group is in tune with the senatorial text, the MoDem is more divided. Within Renaissance, on sovereign issues, the left and right wings continue to have differences. But, unlike the previous five-year term, the first weighs less when the second has become much stronger.
In the coming weeks, like a juggler spinning Chinese plates, Gérald Darmanin will have to demonstrate dexterity to satisfy sometimes contrary requests. For this, he will be assisted by the rapporteur, the Renaissance deputy for Gironde Florent Boudié. On the one hand, the most tense points for the majority appearing in the text reworked by the LR senators, and relating according to Place Beauvau to legislative cavaliers, as such threatened with being censored by the Constitutional Council, will not be preserved , such as the abolition of state medical aid or measures concerning unaccompanied minors. But these deletions are also impatiently awaited by Éric Ciotti and Olivier Marleix, who intend to denounce a deconstruction of the text issued by the Senate and thus justify to their troops their refusal to vote for it.
Political impotence
On the other hand, firm measures such as better supervision of sick foreigners or reinforced control of student visas, or even the elimination of social pricing in transport for people in an irregular situation should be retained by the executive. But will the left wing of the majority accept it? How will Sacha Houlié, the president of the law commission, who comes from it, react? Relations between the Minister of the Interior and the Renaissance MP for Vienne are not simple. “There is no trust between them, delivers a deputy. When they see each other, each wonders when the other’s next move will come. »
Ahead of this sequence full of uncertainties, despite their tense relations in recent months, Élisabeth Borne and Gérald Darmanin nevertheless have one point of agreement: neither are in favor of using 49.3. At Matignon, we consider that we must go to the vote because everyone must take their responsibilities before the French on such a text, where firmness dominates. The context is not the same as for pensions: the use of 49.3 was made necessary because of the deadlines imposed for adopting the financial texts. If the immigration bill were rejected by the Assembly, that would not be the end of the story. It would return to the Senate for a second reading before returning to deputies. The Minister of the Interior has also stated from the start that there is no reason to use such a weapon. He wants to prove on this occasion that he is capable of finding room for maneuver beyond the relative majority.
But this calculation is also risk-taking. Would a rejection of the text in December not be read by the French as a sign of political impotence? While immigration is becoming more and more of a concern for them, wouldn’t the cost be heavy for Emmanuel Macron?
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