2023-11-22 16:23:31
Morgan Stanley Bank (the largest American financial institution) expected that the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil would remain supported at levels around $85, as it is expected that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies will continue to curb production and largely stabilize oil supply at current levels. .
In a note yesterday, Tuesday, analysts at the bank said that the market does not have much capacity to absorb more OPEC oil, adding that they pegged the demand for OPEC oil in 2024 at 28.3 million barrels per day, without a change in the level of demand for the fourth year in a row.
The bank’s analysts now assume that Saudi Arabia will extend the voluntary cuts further until the end of the second quarter of next year, and that it will maintain production below its official OPEC quota of 10.5 million barrels per day in that period.
Saudi Arabia, Russia and other members of OPEC Plus have already pledged to reduce total oil production by 5.16 million barrels per day, or regarding 5% of daily global demand, in a series of steps that began in late 2022.
The bank’s analysts said in the note, “Despite the significant slowdown in US production, we expect non-OPEC supply to rise by 1.4 million barrels per day next year, which is enough to fully meet global demand growth.”
The bank added that it expects oil demand growth to slow in 2024 to regarding 1.2 million barrels per day as the factors that prompted the increase following the Corona pandemic recede and economic growth remains weak.
Sudden postponement
Surprisingly today, OPEC announced in a statement that OPEC Plus postponed its ministerial meeting to determine production policy for next year to November 30 instead of November 26, which led to a further decline in oil prices in global markets.
Brent crude fell in Wednesday’s trading by more than $3 per barrel, or regarding 4%, to fall below the level of $80 per barrel.
Earlier today, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak revealed his view of the global oil market, and said that global oil prices objectively reflect the current situation in the global oil market and the market itself is balanced.
Oil prices witnessed a noticeable decline this month. The price fell from regarding $98 in late September under the weight of rising supplies and concerns regarding demand and a potential economic slowdown.
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