2023-11-21 04:20:41
Finally, following a high-tension election year, Argentina decided. In the November 19 runoff, the polls spoke clearly, with the overwhelming victory of the right-wing populist Javier Milei, of La Libertad Avanza, once morest the Minister of Economy, the Peronist Sergio Massa, of Unión por la Patria. Few polls anticipated Milei’s victory.
A candidate has become president who promises a break with the established political system, “the political caste,” as he calls it, of which he himself now becomes a part. How is this turn explained?
“Deselect” the ruling party as punishment for mismanagement
The Peronist ruling party lost even in places where in the past it had assured victory. Did a large part of the working class stop supporting Peronism? “This is a punishment for what has probably been the worst government management since the return to democracy,” Ignacio Labaqui, professor of Latin American Politics at the Argentine Catholic University (UCA), tells DW.
But there is also a generational change: “In this election, people who were born in 2007 voted, and the only thing they know in the 21st century is the worst stagnation,” he explains. Many of the informal workers who do not receive support from the State would also have turned to Milei, she estimates.
The last three governments “handed over power in conditions much worse than those in which they received it.” Furthermore, “the management of the Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa, might not be compensated either by the professionalism of his campaign, or by the use – in my opinion obscene – of resources by the State for the campaign of the party in Government” , Add.
For Claudia Zilla, senior researcher at the Science and Politics Foundation (SWP), in Berlin, “those who voted for Milei want a change at any price, and those who voted for Peronism thought that Milei may represent a risk of worsening in terms of rights, of democracy,” as he says in an interview with DW, from Buenos Aires. “There were many people who, although they did not feel represented by Milei, voted for him to remove the Peronists from the Government,” she emphasizes. Thus, “Argentina reinforces the Latin American trend of ‘deselecting’ the ruling party since 2018. Except in Paraguay, the opposition was elected in all countries,” she highlights.
Javier Milei and his sister, Karina, shortly before the president-elect’s speech following the runoff. Image: Natacha Pisarenko/AP/picture alliance
“Strong change of trend” in Argentine politics
This result “marks a strong change in trend” in the Argentine political scene, explains Rubén Lo Vuolo, economist at the Interdisciplinary Center for the Study of Public Policies. And he agrees with Claudia Zilla when highlighting the leap into the void that Javier Milei’s lack of political experience represents.
Likewise, Lo Vuolo recalls that “Milei has an extreme discourse that questions values and consensus that seemed indisputable in Argentina”, regarding not abandoning the national currency, for example, or regarding achievements in human rights, and gender issues. Milei already announced this Monday (11/20/2023) the merger of the Ministries of Health, Education and Social Development into one, and the disappearance of the Ministry of Women, Gender and Diversity.
In the opinion of Labaqui, the UCA political scientist, what is happening in Argentina, “is something that has been seen in other countries in the region in recent years, which is the collapse of the party system because citizens opt for a figure that comes from outside politics, or because they skillfully use the discourse that traditional politics is to blame for all evils,” he says. And he mentions the example of Bolsonaro, in Brazil, or, with another political sign, that of López Obrador, in Mexico.
For Milei’s victory in Argentina, however, the support, following the general elections, of the Together for Change coalition was defining; above all, from former president Mauricio Macri and his former Minister of Security, Patricia Bullrich.
Danger to governance?
Milei has already announced several privatizations (the state oil company YPF, Radio Nacional, public television and the Télam news agency). “Everything that may be in the hands of the private sector, will be in its hands.” In her government, “there is no place for gradualism,” she said in her first speech. The reforms will be drastic and at an accelerated pace, unlike what happened with the Macri Government in 2015, she interprets Lo Vuolo. But “Milei does not have a complete economic project, he propagates simplistic solutions. He has to explain how he is going to dollarize if there are no dollars, if the State is without reserves,” he emphasizes.
In the opinion of Ignacio Labaqui, it is also relevant what the specific approach that Milei will give to Argentina’s international relations with Brazil and China, its two main trading partners, will be. A break with either of the two would further weaken the country.
“Some of the things he announced in the campaign are implausible, and others are laughable. There are many counterweights to that. The key question is whether his will be a truly radical government, whether it will be destructive, or whether it will moderate in its performance,” says Claudia Zilla.
Sergio Massa, Peronist candidate for Unión por la Patria, acknowledged defeat once morest Javier Milei before the final results of the elections were known. Image: Gustavo Garello/AP/picture alliance
La Libertad Avanza does not have enough seats in Congress, so it remains to be seen if sectors of Together for Change and the most right-wing sector in Peronism, which represents the provincial governors, will support Milei’s projects, or if he will govern by dint of “decrees,” he says. In his opinion, it is important “that there continue to be institutional stability in Argentina”, despite the resistance from various sectors and the opposition to the new Government’s measures.
“Argentina has a history of social and political mobilizations once morest the governing authorities, which raises a question regarding how far Milei can advance with certain measures,” warns Rubén Lo Vuolo.
The South American country, with the highest inflation rates in 30 years, “has to enter into a stabilization plan, which will be difficult. A competent economic team and minimum political conditions will be necessary,” points out Ignacio Labaqui. “Heavily distorted prices” (such as the exchange rate, fuel prices and utility rates) will first have to be corrected. So there will be more increases before the inflationary spiral can be stopped. “A pressure cooker that will have to be opened very carefully,” he warns: “We will have to see how the bomb that Milei is receiving is deactivated.”
(rml)
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