2023-11-20 21:30:36
Javier Miley He was elected president of Argentina and his arrival at the Casa Rosada opens a series of unknowns regarding what will happen with exchange rates during the government transition. But the big question is what will happen. this Tuesday November 21 when the markets reopen.
We share with you the analysis of the main references of the City of Buenos Aireswho give their opinion on how the official dollar, the blue and other parallel quotes.
For Claudio Caprarulo, economist and director at Analytica, «regarding what might happen with the official dollar, it seems to me that there is a political decision on the one hand and, on the other hand, there is a decision that is directly related to material conditions.. We all knew that the 3% monthly crawling peg policy proposed by the Government seemed very complex to be able to carry out.. “The amount of international reserves in the Central Bank, the nominal value of the Economy with the inflation rate, made it very unlikely that a process of exchange appreciation might be sustained.”
The economist also explained that a period of “uncertainty is opening as the president elected in December proposes dollarizing the economy,” this puts strong pressure on the official exchange rate starting tomorrow. «The parallels surely feel it too»he said although he clarified that we must finish seeing what the market’s reading is regarding the statements that Javier Milei has made at this time and what his margin of action is from now on.
“If he poses a shock scenario, or if, as he said, he will first resolve the quasi-fiscal deficit, that is, the Central Bank debt, the Leliqs, or if following that he will think regarding the disarmament of the stocks exchange rate,” explained Caprarulo. But he stressed that he believes that these measures speak of a shock plan but with a certain gradualism and if this is finally the case, he anticipated, “Therefore, the market reaction tomorrow regarding parallel dollars is not as strong as expected”. Finally, he said that we also have to see whether or not the Reserves continue to be used to intervene until the transfer.
For his part, Amilcar Collante, an economist at CESUR, also speaking with this medium, said that “what I understand is that the Javier Milei wants to go quickly to a unification of the exchange rate so, in this transition, it is likely that at least imports and exports will be equal. A few days ago the 70/30 dollar gave the exporter an exchange rate close to $500. «The most likely thing is that the dollar at 10/12 will be close to that number. The problem is that if they move the official dollar quickly without a plan behind it and a government with little political support, prices can skyrocket,” he warned.
And he added: «The gap will more than anything reflect whether the intention to dollarize is in force. If they reinforce the idea of dollarization during this transition, financiers can step up and widen the gap. On the other hand, if you opt for a plan agreed with the PRO and Together for Change, a traditional stabilization plan (which would imply a monetary, fiscal and exchange adjustment) but consistent, the gap can decrease.
They warn that the Central Bank cannot continue buying dollars
Salvador Vitelli, financial analyst at Romano Group, stated: «The exchange rate can become heavy due to the fact, as Milei has suggested, devaluation expectations. It will be difficult at this time of transition to generate liquidations, especially thinking that the 70-30 scheme is over, that is to say. Today what is in force is the official dollar and there will be no liquidations there so it ends up being a fairly weak scenario for the exchange market«.
In this regard, the analyst said that it does not necessarily imply a discrete jump in the exchange rate, but it will depend on Javier Milei’s discourse these key days. «It will be very difficult for the Central Bank to continue buying dollars and we will also have to see the messages that Milei can give regarding dollarization,” he said and on this point he highlighted that it is important, for example they devalue and $500see what plan is behind because if it is not consistent it can become inflationary and not necessarily solve the exchange issue.
Milei president-elect: what might happen to the CCL dollar
On the other hand, a report from ΘUTLIΣR that came out following the runoff indicated that regarding the financial exchange rates (MEP and CCL), “depending on the statements of the president-elect in the coming days and the situation in which the government We believe that everything is in place for additional increases in the exchange rate in the short term.«.
In turn, from PPI, they predicted that the CCL will likely open well above Friday’s $870, given the prevailing uncertainty and, from the flow side, the disappearance of the 30% liquidation of exporters, will probably validate the crypto dollar levels. “It is worth saying that the cut from the $1,200 zone following Milei’s speech reflects the low probability of dollarization, which continues to leave the real CCL in excessively high terms for a scenario in which the peso remains alive,” they clarified. .
Milei president-elect: how much might the price of the dollar be in December
As for the ROFEX dollar futures, which serves as a thermometer to know what the market is projecting regarding the wholesale dollar, it had closed the November position at $370, which, from PPI, they considered that “it seems to have been very cheap given the probable discrete jump in the exchange rate. The December position at $670 for 12/31 may also look attractive with a Milei quickly emerging from the exchange stocks.
Finally, from FMyA, they projected that regarding the official dollar, “we assume an Exchange unification, not a doubling for December. Our assumption is $800 for December«. Regarding the blue dollar, they maintain that it will be “pressured” until it is clarified whether or not there will be a dollarization plan. «If the dollarization project is consolidated, it is difficult for the parallel dollar not to rise«, they closed.
With information from Ámbito
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