2023-11-20 02:10:00
When everyone was projecting an election of great parity, almost a head to head, finally the runoff numbers did not offer such a technical tie as the polls analyzed. It is that the president-elect Javier Milei was more than 11 percentage points ahead of Sergio Massa.
With 98.62% of the tables counted, the leader of La Libertad Avanza obtained 55.73% while the leader of Unión por la Patria, 44.26%. In fact, the difference was almost three million votes (14,397,260 vs 11,433,538).
No one projected this distance in favor of Milei. Although most polls showed the libertarian as the winner, he was always in a scenario of certain parity.
The pollsters’ explanation of Milei’s victory
Jacob & Associates It was one of the consultants that was closest to giving Milei the winner with 53.1% of the votes once morest 46.9% for Massa. “He We just had 45% – 55% at the exit poll today. But until Friday at the beginning of the ban, that scenario was not configured. You have to understand that a part of the electorate made decisions regarding the end. And so surveys cannot predict, because they do not guess, surveys only ask“explained the director of the company Jorge Jacob in dialogue with PROFILE.
For its part, Cristian Buttiedirector of CB Consultant, told PERFIL that the big surprise was the disappointing election of Massa in the province of Buenos Aires. “It was worse than expected,” commented the leader of the pollster who had given 50.1% for the libertarian and 45.3% for the Unión por la Patria candidate, without counting the undecided who ended up deciding in favor of Milei.
Milei, from good rating to power
Also in dialogue with this medium, Manuel Zuninofrom the consulting firm Projection Consultantscommented that the undecided and that there were no local or provincial elections in the districts, so the only choice was Massa or Milei, ended up favoring the libertarian.
“Although we had a favorable trend towards Javier Milei, which was consolidated following the agreement with Mauricio Macri, until the last few days there was a part of the undecided Bullrich vote, which finally turned to the LLA candidate. Furthermore, in recent weeks he had a important growth in the north of the country that gave it impetus,” he expressed and added that this increase in Milei in the north was due to the fact that “Voters who accompanied Peronist governors did not do so with Massa“.
Projections from other surveys
The Brazilian consulting firm Atlas Intel, which had shown that Massa was going to be the winner of the general elections on October 22, gave Milei the winner of the runoff but by a narrow margin. They gave the libertarian 48.6% compared to 44.6% who would vote for the current Minister of Economy. If only valid votes are counted, the vote projection indicated that the libertarian economist would reach 52.1%, while the former mayor of Tigre would be at 47.9%.
The Universidad de San Andrés also showed a scenario with Milei winning. The Political Satisfaction and Public Opinion Survey (ESPOP) concluded that Milei would obtain a comfortable victory of 37% to 31 percent, although 23% of voters were undecided.
On the other hand, two other consultancies gave Sergio Massa the winner. he Latin American Strategic Center for Geopolitics (Celag) showed a voting intention of 46.7% for Sergio Massa and 45.3% for Javier Milei, with 8% of voters remaining without defining their position.
While the consulting firm Circuitos also projected a victory for the ruling party by 44.2% over Javier Milei’s 42.1% (13.7% undecided).
ED CP
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