2023-11-12 03:30:00
The country enters the final stretch of an electoral campaign that was focused on the immediate concerns that overwhelm millions of Argentines: inflation that pulverizes family income, increasing poverty and uncertainty regarding the future. In the concern to navigate everyday life, the climate crisis has occupied a marginal place in the debates and campaign proposals, something that is a mistake because it is a problem with a direct impact on the economy and the worsening of vulnerability. social of a large part of the population.
October was the hottest month in history, or at least in the last 100,000 years, and the temperatures reached this year will probably also be an absolute record, the European Copernicus observatory reported on Wednesday. This will translate into extreme climate events: unprecedented and prolonged droughts in some places, devastating fires, hurricanes and floods. in others, aggravating problems such as famine and forced population displacement. These problems will be brought to the next UN COP 28 meeting in Dubai at the end of the month, which will seek a difficult agreement between industrialized and developing countries.
A study by World Weather Attribution pointed out that due to the El Niño phenomenon, Argentina is 100 times more likely to suffer extreme heat waves this summer, where there have already been temperatures above 40°C in the north.
Far from being a theoretical problem, global warming had a direct impact on the Argentine crisis. It was behind the fierce drought that collapsed agricultural exports by some US$20 billion this year, with the drop in state income, the volatility of the exchange rate and the acceleration of inflation. In a framework of fiscal and monetary fragility, torrential rains or extreme heat waves might severely affect crop yields or the population’s work capacity. In regional economies, productions such as wine or fruit growing were and will be affected, reducing both the income of provincial governments and that of local populations. If adaptation measures are not implemented, the country might see up to 4% of its GDP reduced by 2050, according to World Bank calculations.
The impact is not only economic. The persistence of these problems worsens the lack of access to water and the food insecurity that 4.2 million Argentines already suffer. Heat waves have devastating effects on the health of the most vulnerable population, such as women and children in rural areas and older adults, while fueling epidemics and aggravating non-communicable diseases.
Given this reality, there have been few concrete proposals in this campaign. On the one hand, the libertarian Javier Milei has not only denied and relativized studies on climate change, pointing out that they are “cyclical behaviors typical of the planet” unrelated to human activity and considers the warnings as “inventions that seek to raise funds for lazy socialists.” who write fourth-rate papers” while relativizing factors such as deforestation or river pollution. For his part, his rival Sergio Massa, although she has criticized denialism, has also not gone beyond calling to “defend biodiversity and ecosystems” and protect national parks. Despite the declarations and projects, progress is slow in areas such as crop adaptation, stopping deforestation, energy transition to reduce dependence on fossil fuels, and an extractivist and short-term view of resources such as lithium persists.
Experts consider that Argentina can play a key role in the energy transition given its wind and solar potential, in addition to the Vaca Muerta gas resources. Addressing the issue from a more comprehensive ecological perspective, without denialism and with a perspective of concertation with other Latin American countries in global negotiations should be a goal for any future government.
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