2023-11-08 19:29:00
More numbers, less numbers, analysts usually agree that the parallel dollar market nor operates more than 5% of the total volume of this currency that moves in the country. However, it has earned the privilege of being the cover of newspapers and video graph of TV channels. Especially when it rises or falls spasmodically, something that is usually closely associated with the political situation. And although it is known to everyone, it remains a mystery in many aspects.
This week it is further behind and at levels of $900 but prior to the presidential elections it at times exceeded $1,200. Why is it moving so volatile and what can be expected in the future?
The reasons for the fall of the blue dollar and the Maslatón ruling: “Dollarization failed Milei”
Los Analysts point out that it is a very limited circle, in which the same players almost always operate. However, even Minister Sergio Massa himself said it recently, “There are no prisoners for exchange crimes in Argentina.” And it’s not even Esteban “El Croata” Rojnicadesignated by the government as “the king of the caves”, because in his case, although he is detained, it was for another reason, one that links him to money laundering.
By its nature, The blue market raises many unknowns. With the help of some economists and analysts we will try to unravel what this blessed parallel dollar says – beyond its prices, which are usually very volatile.
First of all, the stocks
To understand what the blue dollar market is regarding, Aldo Abraham, Economist and Director of the Freedom and Progress Foundation He explained to PERFIL that there is a previous step and that is to understand the exchange rate.
“The stocks It is a way for the Central Bank to delay the exchange rate, that is, not showing in the exchange rate everything that the peso is depreciating or losing their purchasing power.”, he said and added: “CSince they do not want this to be reflected in the official dollar because the prices of all goods that can be exported or imported depend on it, the central bank tries to control that value of the dollar when it is still free and fluctuating by selling dollars.”indicated and highlighted that It is an “unsustainable” practice. because the government loses the reserves, which This is what we have seen so far, “Therefore, they restrict demand.”
Alternatives to get out of the exchange trap
Under these conditions, the director of Libertad y Progreso recalled that “the Central Bank places a restriction and establishes that certain people, companies and activities can no longer pursue the official market, thereby “Demand drops to the level where supply dropped and it does not lose reserves.”. And he added: “The only problem is that the value of the official dollar is increasingly delayed and then it begins to lose value once more. As there is a lot of inflation, they delay the (official) exchange rate more. That makes it, suddenly, If the dollar is cheap, then there are more people demanding, reserves are lost once more, and new restrictions are set. Thus, operations are increasingly restrictive and it is the story that has led us to the explosions and outbreaks of the 22 times we’ve had stocks before“explained the economist when taking a historical tour of what the CEPO has been.
What volume can be traded in the informal dollar market?
The commonplace is to hear among operators that It is a very small market, although no one knows exactly what the figure is that is being traded..
In the eyes of the economist and teacher Pablo Tigani “annuallyLess than 2% of Argentina’s exchange rate movement can be traded through the parallel market. because the majority of foreign trade operations are those that are transacted through the free and single exchange market, and then there are the alternative markets, the cash with liqui and the MEP; so no one can say exactly, but it’s very little. “A maximum of 3% would be what can be traded,” indicated to PROFILE.
For the strategist Elena Alonso of the Grupo Broda, “on average, more or less, although it is not an estimated average because there are no formal recordss, what the blue dollar represents with respect to financial dollars is not more than 5%.” “DOn a daily basis, no more than 5% of the blue dollar is traded compared to what MEP trades and counted with liquid, so as you will see, it is a market that is very small andor it is the one that moves the needle, but it is the one that is taken as a reference in a thermometer“, he expressed.
And in that line of analysis he recalled that “it arose following we left convertibility. There we began to see different dollar quotes. In 2001 this situation appeared where there was no support from the BCRA for the pesos that were circulating. There was no peso/dollar parity, which is why this expectation of the dollar began to rise and parallel dollars began to be negotiated., because in reality it was known that it would not be possible to access that amount of dollars with the pesos available. So, Whoever wanted to buy dollars had to pay more for them and led us to“Today you pay almost 900 pesos blue dollar”he assured.
Who turns to the black market?
For Tigani it is evident thatThose who operate in that circuit “are the small savers y Sometimes it is used – as has been proven these days – to carry out political operations, because the market is so small, 2 or 3 get together and can put up a significant amount to demand, they make the price rise and generate political publicity to the detriment of the one who is governing, which is quite unfavorable“, he pointed.
Regarding whether it is true or a myth that those who operate in this market are known, Tigani assured: “It is not a myth, they are out there, people are on the street, those who would be the sellers who take them to the offices of the microcentro are on the street saying ‘change, change’, so It is really nothing more than a small market where those who on the one hand have small savings and others who have money from black sales take refuge, So they can’t make investments in white and what they do is buy dollars in black.”
That dollarization continues under debate “generates some fear in the red circle”
In the view of Elena Alonso “although there are few actors in the economy that operate blue because the volume already says so, the reality is that, Since there are so many restrictions on buying dollars and accessing the official dollar, this information begins to have more and more value, beyond the fact that it is not the one with the most volume.
For the strategist, This enhances the notoriety that the informal dollar gains. “I think that “the large market operators are known and that it is in all sectors’ interests that this parallel dollar also exists,” he indicated..
Regarding the possibility of this market disappearing, the economist commented that she does not see it as viable, except if the economy is dollarized. “I don’t think it’s going to disappear because the informal economy also has a lot to do with it in this sense. Almost half of the economy in Argentina becomes informal. In fact, companies sometimes bill less than half of what they actually sell for a tax issue, so This amplifies this need for this market to exist,” he claimed.
Who goes to blue, who to MEP and who to CCL
Abraham from Libertad y Progreso shared with his economist colleagues that The main actors in the blue market are small savers.
“In the blue, people who have low income operate and little idea of how to operate financially, which is why they do not do it through apps and all the mechanisms with which the MEP dollar can be accessed. Of course it’s black money, that’s why it goes to the informal market,” he noted, also explaining that It is a relatively small segment. with respect to the others.
In contrast to the informal market, he indicated that in the MEP dollar market or stock market osmall and medium-sized businesses operate, as well as people with middle incomes and up. “It is a legal market and then there is the market of cash with settlement, but since there you need to have an account abroad, large savers and also large companies operateto define it roughly,” he said.
Regarding the largest volume of the three, he commented: “In terms of operations, cash with liquid is usually the most important, followed by the MEP or stock market and then, in third place and quite far away, the blue dollar.”
Finally, for Abraham this explains why the country has “always had, throughout Argentine history, exchange controls. That is what justifies that we have always had parallel markets,” he added.
And he advanced his hypothesis a little further by remembering that “Even when we had a free dollar, without stocks, the blue still existed.”
And why did blue exist? It seems that the answer is quite obvious: “For black money more than anything”he concluded.
With an informal economy that is estimated at around 40%, it is to be expected that blue will have a long life.
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