2023-11-06 02:36:07
The US dollar fell significantly during Friday’s session, driven primarily by the release of a disappointing jobs report that came in below expectations. This unexpected development has cast a shadow of uncertainty over the market, which may affect the prevailing upward trend trajectory. However, I think this will be just a blip on the radar regarding this trend.
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The crucial juncture lies in breaking the ¥150 level, a milestone that would undoubtedly indicate strong bullish sentiment. Such an event might reactivate the market, paving the way for a rally back towards previous highs. However, it is important to realize that the market is still plagued by ongoing speculation surrounding the Fed’s actions, which contributes to an atmosphere of uncertainty.
Below, the 50 day moving average is an important support level. His ability to provide a lot of support cannot be overlooked. While the difference in interest rates between currencies remains large, recent developments in US bond markets have seen yields decline. This shift is clearly reflected in the charts, but it is only a matter of time before traders regain their footing and inject new momentum into the market.
Looking at the bearish scenario, a break below the 147.80 yen level would indicate the possibility of a more pronounced downward movement. Such a result may indicate the possibility of a more extensive correction. However, it is worth noting that value-oriented traders are likely to reappear in the market, especially given the distant outlook for the Bank of Japan which is considering tightening its monetary policy. However, I think it’s only a matter of time.
Essentially, the current market conditions represent a good moment to acquire the US dollar at an attractive price, in line with the idea of buying into weakness. It is worth noting that we noticed a slight rebound during the trading session following the initial decline. However, caution is crucial, and it would be wise to wait for this candle to expire before considering any buying decisions. Furthermore, entering the market just before the weekend may contain an unnecessary degree of risk, requiring careful consideration of the trader’s strategy.
Possible signal: I will only buy this pair. If we get above the 150 level, I will enter. The stop loss point is at level 149. The target will be level 152 above.
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