2023-11-01 11:05:00
The meteorologist also mentions the storm of 1953, which he considers to be “one of the most emblematic in the history of contemporary climate in Belgium”. That year, on the night of January 31 to February 1, a violent storm combined with a strong high tide caused heavy damage on the coast. “It is the most intense if we take the damage due to the wind and the strong tide,” he insists, recalling that it had caused the rupture of numerous dikes in the Netherlands, causing 1,800 deaths. among our neighbors and around twenty in Belgium. “It was still a very exceptional stormy event.”
Storm Ciaran which arrives on Thursday puts France on alert: what should we fear in Belgium?
A downward trend
Contrary to what one might think, anthropogenic global warming would not increase the number of these meteorological events. “There is rather a decline compared to around fifty years ago,” confirms Pascal Mormal. In his climate report published in 2020, the IRM specifies that the average wind speed has tended to decrease in our country for several decades, “and in particular since the start of the 21st century”. The data shows a significant trend towards a weakening of the wind in winter, spring and autumn since 1981. The annual number of stormy days (Editor’s note; with winds above 80 km/h) is also decreasing ( -4.5 days per decade). The same goes for maximum annual wind peaks. “We can therefore conclude from all the results obtained that the intensity of storms, like their frequency, has not increased in our country over the last three decades,” the report concludes.
According to Pascal Mormal, one of the explanations perhaps lies in the evolution of the jet stream current, the driving force behind the dynamics of storms. This actually tends to weaken and meander more, “particularly during the autumn season when the temperature contrast is greatest between the Poles and the Equator”. But this is still a hypothesis at this stage that needs to be confirmed by more research. There is also no guarantee that this downward trend will continue over the coming years, specifies the meteorologist, who remains cautious.
“Very strong autumn storm” Ciaran: France prepares for winds blowing up to 170 km/h, Belgium on yellow alert
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