2023-10-31 21:11:50
U.S. Stock Diary | S&D Dow Jones Industrial Average fell for the first time in a row in March since the epidemic
The Wall Street stock market fell first and then stabilized on the last trading day of October. It rose for two consecutive days. The Dow Jones index closed above 33,000 points, but it failed to save the decline in October. All three major indexes recorded three consecutive months of decline. Among them, the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell for the first time in three consecutive months since the COVID-19 epidemic. The market is waiting to see the outcome of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting on Wednesday, as well as Chairman Powell’s speech at the press conference.
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Market conditions on October 31 (Tuesday)
l The Dow Jones index rose 123.91 points, or 1.12%, to 33,052.87 points. To sum up the month, the Dow fell 1.36%.
l The S&P 500 index rose 26.98 points, or 0.65%, to 4,193.80 points. It fell 2.2% for the month.
l The Nasdaq index rose 61.76 points, or 0.0.48%, to 12,851.24 points. It fell 2.78% this month.
l New York oil futures for December delivery closed at US$81.02 a barrel, down US$1.29 or 1.6%. It fell 10.8% in October.
l New York December gold futures closed at $1,994.3 an ounce, down 0.6%. It rose 6.9% in one month.
l The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield closed at 4.875%, unchanged.
Large technology stocks underperformed the market. Nvidia fell nearly 1%, Alphabet and Meta were soft, Amazon, Microsoft, and Apple were stable. Tesla’s autonomous driving function was involved in a car accident, and a judge made a favorable ruling, and the stock price rose 1.7%. Financial stocks led the market upward, with Bank of America rising 2.5%, JPMorgan Chase and Berkshire Hathaway rising 1%. Catepillar’s performance last quarter was satisfactory, but its operating guidance for this quarter was only “slightly higher” than the same period last year, disappointing the market, and its stock price fell 6.6%.
Marko Kolanovic, chief market strategist at JPMorgan Chase, said that the impact of monetary tightening policies on U.S. companies has been fully realized, and corporate profit forecasts need to be revised downward by double digits.
He said that interest rates have constrained the economy, liquidity has tightened, and geopolitical risks have intensified, weakening consumer demand and corporate pricing power. Under such circumstances, the market still generally expects earnings per share to grow by 12%, which seems to be consistent with the environment. There’s a disconnect.
The Federal Reserve issued guidance to the public that interest rates should remain at high levels for a longer period of time. Coupled with the quantitative tightening effect of reducing bond purchases, the bond market fell sharply in October. The interest rate on 10-year Treasury bonds rose by more than 35 points cumulatively. Market interest rates The rise affects the stock market sentiment.
However, some analysts believe that the stock market adjustment is not deep enough, but there is no need to be too pessimistic.
Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, pointed out that the average correction of the S&P 500 index in a given year is 14.3%, and the index is currently close to 4,200 points and needs to fall to 3,950 points to reach this historical average.
He said that since 1952, if the S&P 500 index fell for three consecutive months in August, September, and October, the return in the last two months of the year would be positive 4.5% on average, and this was only tried in December 1957. Negative returns.
“Yes, stocks have been lower over the past three months, but the last two months of the year tend to be bullish. Also, stocks are still up regarding 8% this year, so it may feel worse now, but we should look at how the full year plays out.” Detrick Since 1952, the S&P 500’s average annual total return has been just under 11%.
Peter Oppenheimer, chief global equity strategist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., said the significant outperformance of U.S. stocks over the past decade is unlikely to be repeated in the next decade. “U.S. equities now have higher concentration risk than other major markets, and equities represent a much larger share of the U.S. economy than anywhere else.”
He said that this outstanding performance in the past partly reflected the United States’ leading position in the technology field and the dominance of a few large companies on the market, and suggested that investors should diversify their investments in the future.
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