2023-10-31 11:45:00
After two months of autumn out of three, we can already learn some lessons. The month of September was quite exceptional, particularly for its mildness since it was the hottest September ever recorded in Belgium. In October, we still see significant mildness with two degrees more than expected on average for the whole month. If the rain has arrived for the second part of the month and will offer figures above the seasonal averages, what should we expect for November? A priori, the same type of weather, with temperatures around seasonal averages, or even a little milder, and an umbrella to always keep on hand.
We can also already mention the meteorological winter, which begins on December 1st. As with every season, specialists produce seasonal models. Météo France indicates that we should expect a milder winter than average, with a positive anomaly of one to two degrees, but also more precipitation.
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For Belgium, the trend is the same. “One to two degrees is still a significant anomaly,” says Pascal Mormal. It is a priori the month of December which promises to be milder, the mildness at this stage seems less marked for January and February.”
What seems reasonably certain is that we should not expect a harsh winter. This is not bad news for heating savings, but it is not the same for the planet. “It’s quite worrying, we must not forget it,” he explains. Since 2013, we haven’t had a remotely cold winter. There were a few episodes of snow and one or another cold week, but nothing that changed the averages. We are very far from the winters of the 1970s or 1980s.”
He points in particular to the example of the last official cold wave recorded in Uccle, in February 2012. “We had experienced 15 very cold days, and the last official cold wave (a period of at least 5 consecutive days during which the maxima do not exceed 0 degrees, and during which the minima are less than -10 degrees at least three times during the period considered, according to the MRI, Editor’s note). However, the winter of 2011-2012 was not particularly cold overall,” he recalls.
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