three reasons to worry despite the stagnation of the number of unemployed

2023-10-25 04:33:13

Margaux Fodéré, edited by Alexandre Bozio
06:33, October 25, 2023

During his re-election as President of the Republic in 2022, Emmanuel Macron made full employment his objective by 2027. After having fallen for several years in a row, the number of unemployed has now stagnated. Despite this, several factors can be cause for concern.

This Wednesday, Pôle emploi must reveal the number of job seekers recorded in the third quarter of 2023. For several months, the unemployment rate has stagnated at around 7%. Despite this, there are three reasons to worry regarding the future of the French labor market. First concern: the unemployment insurance reform, which came into force two years ago, is not producing the expected effect even though it was intended to accelerate the return of the unemployed to the job market, particularly in decreasing, over time, the aid granted.

According to initial figures from the National Interprofessional Union for Employment in Industry and Commerce (UNEDIC), only 10 to 15% of unemployed executives have actually rushed their searches. “The degression does not seem to have a significant impact on the duration of unemployment,” Sylvain Bersinger, chief economist at the Astéres firm, assured Europe 1. “The dynamics of unemployment seem to be linked to macroeconomic contexts more than to degression if this survey is to be believed.”

Poor forecasts

Aside from the impotence of this reform, the halo of unemployment also remains very significant in France, as explained by Alexandre Judes, economist at Indeed. “These are people who would like to work, but who are not counted in the unemployment figures. In 2008, there were only one and a half million people in the halo,” he said. “Today, we are a little below 2 million. So it’s a category that unfortunately continues to grow.”

Finally, the forecast for next year is not exactly positive. According to the French Observatory of Economic Conditions (OFCE), the number of unemployed should in fact reach 8% at the end of 2024, in particular due to the slowdown in economic growth.

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