2023-10-23 13:38:00
Sergio Massa and Javier Milei will define in the context of a balloting who will be the next President of the Nation and in this even scenario a key question immediately arises associated with Patricia Bullrich’s voters. Will they support the “chainsaw plan” and the radical reforms of the libertarian candidate? Will they vote blank? Or will they lean towards the Tigrense, who in the last stretch of the campaign called on the main political forces to a “great national agreement”, including PRO leaders?
For now, the hard setback suffered by the Together for Change candidate at the polls became clear, as she obtained 23.85% of the votes and was far from entering the runoff since the Unión por la Patria candidate obtained 36.58% and that of La Libertad Avanza 30.04%.
During the electoral campaign, Bullrich had some initial approach with MileiHowever, following the PASO, that bond suffered with very strong cross accusations that included a criminal complaint of the presidential candidate to the leader of LLA. Meanwhile, as a first hypothesis it is estimated that the candidate’s anti-Kirchnerist imprint would make her lean towards the libertarian.
When is the runoff between Sergio Massa and Javier Milei following the 2023 general elections
Indeed, once the defeat of Together for Change was accepted this Sunday, the former Minister of Security remained firmly critical of Sergio Massawhich would seem to anticipate his absolute support for Milei in the second round.
“I’m not going to be the one to congratulate someone who was part of the worst government in Argentina”stated Patricia Bullrich.
In any case, Bullrich’s inflexible positioning does not necessarily translate to his voters. In this regard, we will have to wait if the predominant factor will be anti-Kirchner sentiment or fear of the radical ideas of the liberal economist.
Several PRO references, starting with Mauricio Macri, openly tune in with the liberal proposals that the outsider uses to restructure the economy. However, the dollarization plan continues to generate controversies outside the libertarian circle, as it is a disruptive measure that came to be defined metaphorically as a “jump into the void.”
What were the surveys that confirmed that Massa and Milei are going to runoff?
Ballottage Massa-Milei: the first hypotheses of specialists
In this context, PERFIL spoke with multiple consulting firms that have been conducting public opinion polls and analyzed the peculiar phenomenon that will have a definitive influence on the electoral contest: What would be the hypothetical behavior of Patricia Bullrich’s voters in a runoff between Massa and Milei?
From Projection Consultants they clarified that although the scenario is complex, in principle They do not coincide with the “linear analyzes” that assume that Bullrich’s vote would go directly to Javier Milei.
“On the contrary, it is very divided.” According to specialists there is a important percentage of this group that would see “a risk” in the libertarian.
It would be a relatively homogeneous segment of voters that shares a series of characteristics: medium-high socio-economic level, people over 50 years of age, who value institutions and consider the importance of health and public education, for example.
Furthermore, the specialists of said consulting firm added, these citizens would mostly have their economic life “resolved” and evaluate with some “concern” the still unknown implications of the “chainsaw plan.”
In the case of CB Consultora de Opinión Pública, they remained cautious regarding the question and recognized that until now there is no clear perspective on the issue, which is why they rejected any forecast in this regard. “We should observe it in the next few days”they clarified.
The experienced analyst and consultant Eduardo Reina examined the scenario and considered it “premature” to carry out an analysis on Patricia Bullrich’s electorate since in light of this Sunday’s results a “new election and campaign” began.
However, Reina assured that a “a large percentage” of this segment, close to half, conceives the possibility of voting for Javier Milei in the runoff.
The rest, according to the analyst, should “reconcile” with the La Libertad Avanza candidate.
Milei bunker: with less euphoria than in the PASO, the libertarians organized their celebration without “caste”
Radicalism: the key to the runoff?
“There is a group of radicalism ‘progres’ who had voted for Patricia and now might go for Massa,” Eduardo Reina suggested.
The scenario would become even more problematic if Milei from now on “He appears to be a negotiator and conciliator”.
“The new leaders of Together for Change will have to act and will have to put dressings on a wounded coalition with little quality of recovery,” the specialist pointed out.
“Massa is not going to be oblivious and will be conciliatory and will open his arms to everyone,” Reina conjectured regarding the Minister of Economy.
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