2023-10-19 15:00:51
Ukraine appears to have succeeded in its most significant incursion across the Dnieper, in the Kherson region, since the start of the counter-offensive in early June. But no one knows why several hundred Ukrainian soldiers advanced so far into territory controlled by the enemy. Opportunistic attack or start of a new major offensive?
They crossed the river then the first Russian line of defense. Ukrainian forces appear to have taken their adversary by surprise Tuesday October 17 by forcing passage into the Kherson region, that is, far from the main areas of fighting on the front line, which are regarding 240 kilometers to the east, towards Donetsk and Zaporizhia.
Several hundred soldiers from two Ukrainian naval infantry brigades managed to cross the Dnieper River, not far from the city of Kherson, and advanced into Russian-controlled territory towards the villages of Pishchanivka and Poima, reported several “milbloggers” Russian (military analysts and commentators) on social networks. Some of these observers even claimed that the Ukrainian army had now taken possession of Poima.
Use of elite units
“There have already been numerous crossings of the Dnieper River by small Ukrainian reconnaissance squads but they never stayed long. If this operation is confirmed, it is the most important since the start of the Ukrainian counter-offensive” , says Sim Tack, a military analyst for Force Analysis, a conflict monitoring company.
The statements of Russian “milbloggers” should, in fact, be taken with a grain of salt, and “they have already been wrong on more than one occasion,” says Jeff Hawn, specialist in Russian military issues and external consultant for the New Lines Institute. , an American center for research in geopolitics. However, “when it comes to pointing out difficulties and setbacks for the Russian army, they are rather credible because it allows these war hawks to put pressure on the Russian Defense Ministry,” adds this expert.
The Ukrainian army has also indirectly confirmed that an operation was underway in the Kherson region. On Telegram, the general staff stressed that the Russian army was bombing the villages of Pishchanivka and Poima, suggesting, without saying it, that there are indeed Ukrainian troops there.
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What did they come to look for there, when kyiv seemed for months to concentrate all its forces in the Zaporizhzhia region to carry out its counter-offensive there? “This may be the result of all the previous reconnaissance missions carried out on the other side of the Dnieper River, in the Kherson region,” said Huseyn Aliyev, an expert on the conflict in Ukraine at the University of Glasgow. By carrying out incursions, the Ukrainian army would have ended up finding the weak point in the Russian defense system and would seek to exploit it.
“Its deployed forces – that is to say a few hundred naval infantry soldiers – are perfectly suited for this type of operation which can be described as reinforced reconnaissance,” specifies Jeff Hawn. It’s regarding being able to advance in hostile territory without having to turn back at the slightest contact with the enemy.
These brigades belong to the elite units of the Ukrainian army, trained for landings and “supposed to be capable of fighting once morest those stronger than oneself.”
The fact that this concerns several hundred soldiers allows this force to “hold positions, like small villages, while waiting for reinforcements or to carry out rapid retreats without risking losing too many men”, continues Jeff Hawn.
Distraction or new offensive?
For the moment, it is difficult to say whether this operation marks the start of a new major offensive as part of the counter-offensive, or not. The Ukrainian general staff may not even know it themselves, according to experts interviewed by France 24.
The most likely is that this is an opportunistic incursion into Russian-occupied territory and that kyiv is waiting to see how the Russian army will respond. It is therefore at least a distraction, but one that Moscow must take seriously. “If Russia does not react, it is a distraction which might quickly turn into a bridgehead for the Ukrainian army, not far from Crimea,” believes Sim Tack.
Kiev is also probably seeking to carry out brilliant coups, on the sidelines of the main military effort, to “grab a little territory where the defenses are less strong and counterbalance the impression that the counter-offensive is slow to produce effects tangible,” suggests Sim Tack. A way of reassuring Western capitals which provided equipment and funds to support the Ukrainian war effort.
Also read: Ukraine: the city of Kherson, liberated but still at war
But if Ukraine decides to make it the first act of a larger offensive, it will become “a very risky operation, but which can also pay off big”, estimates Sim Tack.
Indeed, to push its advantage, Ukraine will first of all have an interest in ensuring “several crossing points on the Dnieper River, in order to allow continuous movement of men, equipment and supplies. The establishment “securing bridges over a river is one of the most complicated and dangerous military operations,” says Huseyn Aliyev.
Ukraine will also need to strengthen ground troops by adding “motorized and armored units in order to be able to advance deeper into enemy territory,” underlines Jeff Hawn.
In other words, it would be a very intensive operation in terms of men and equipment. Not sure that the Ukrainian army can afford to mobilize so many forces in an area which does not represent the heart of the counter-offensive. “Ukraine probably has enough troops already in the region to try to establish a permanent bridgehead across the Dnieper. But if the General Staff decides to try to march into Crimea, it would have to then transfer forces that might be useful where the fighting is currently most intense,” analyzes Sim Tack.
But the game can be worth the effort. “If the Ukrainian army succeeds in breaking through into this area and moving closer to Crimea, this might make the supply of Russian troops very precarious and the entire Kherson region might be recaptured very quickly,” estimates Huseyn Aliyev.
And then, such an effort in the Kherson region would be in season. “Winter is coming, and since the Kherson region has a Mediterranean-type climate, the weather there should be milder than in the Donetsk and Zaporizhia oblasts,” notes Huseyn Aliyev. In other words, if the Ukrainian army wants to hope to make advances during the winter, it would be better to focus on the Kherson region.
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