2023-10-18 18:41:00
The Covid epidemic and the war in Ukraine had relegated Islamist terrorism far down the list of themes addressed by politicians and the media. The attack perpetrated in Brussels this Monday changed the situation. Does this drama risk putting security at the center of Belgian concerns in view of the 2024 elections?
“Unexpected and significant events such as an oil spill, the rise in oil prices, or an attack, affect society, and can reorient the order of concern of a part of the voters, and therefore their vote, analyzes Pascal Delwit, political scientist at ULB. However, over time, the scale of priorities may change. June is both close and very far away. Without another event of this type between now and then, Monday’s attack should not, in itself, influence the elections. But if other events occur subsequently, the theme may become an important concern.”
The latest poll carried out on behalf of La Libre and RTBF provided interesting data on the themes which determine the vote of Belgians.
Political poll: here is the main concern of Belgian voters
Security did not appear to be a priority for voters at all. Only 14% of Walloons and Brussels residents considered this theme to be decisive (in 9th position), compared to 18% in Flanders.
Should we conclude that this theme is not electorally promising? Not sure. “In our surveys of opinion data, there is a fairly strong, even total, connection between security and immigration in voting intentions. In the imagination of a certain number of citizens, this link is made…”, indicates Pascal Delwit.
However, if immigration is only the 12th most determining subject in Wallonia (11.3%), it comes in 4th place in Brussels (18%) and even in second position in Flanders (28%).
The concerns of liberal voters
A strong and lasting return to the themes of security and immigration at the center of the news would favor, according to Pascal Delwit, “the parties which have an assertive approach on the subject, namely the MR on the French-speaking side and in Vlaams Belang , in Flanders, even if I absolutely do not compare the two. Because for the other parties, positioning themselves on these themes in fact amounts to legitimizing the actor who talks regarding them the most, and who would be right to do so, therefore the MR and Vlaams Belang”.
And in fact, since the Brussels attack, the MR has increased its proposals, speeches and media appearances on the theme of security and immigration.
“These are points on which Georges-Louis Bouchez (president of the MR) believes he can make a difference compared to the Engagés or the PS,” continues the political scientist. For the Engagés, taking a strong position on these questions would mark them too much in the right-wing camp. While they rather want to occupy a center-right abandoned by Georges-Louis Bouchez. As for Défi, which is very assertive on issues affecting the Muslim community, this party can hardly differentiate itself from the MR. On refugees, for example, François De Smet, president of Défi, adopts a relatively progressive position. While the MR takes more martial positions.”
Strategically, the Liberals’ positioning is not without foundation. In Brussels, immigration is the second issue considered the most determining (31.5%) among respondents who say they are voting MR, while security comes in third position (27.4%). It’s a little less in Wallonia. For comparison, only 7% of Brussels and Walloon PS and Ecolo voters list immigration among their main concerns.
In Flanders, the balances are different. Vlaams Belang, unlike the N-VA, is not in power anywhere and forcefully exploits any negative event linked to security, immigration or Islam. “The N-VA also has a martial discourse on these subjects. But it might hardly make the difference compared to Vlaams Belang. And all the more so since she is in power in Flanders, and especially in Antwerp where there are many security problems.”
Bouchez relaunches the debate on home visits
The subject can be tricky for the right too. Questioned by the French media, Georges-Louis Bouchez took up the idea of authorizing home visits to a home where there is an undocumented person. This issue, which divides Vivaldi – and the Swede before her – is also not unanimous within the MR, where some have raised eyebrows. The president of the MR established a link between the impossibility for the police officers to execute the order to leave the territory which targeted Abdesalem L. and the prohibition for the authorities to enter a home without authorization from its occupant.
“The central question is how a person might have disappeared from the radar”: for PS and Ecolo, the migration debate is a counterfire
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