2023-10-18 11:13:17
Analysts at the Sinara investment bank rebalanced the Model Portfolio, which includes the most promising shares on the Russian market. Experts recorded part of the profit on the securities, increasing the share of cash from 25% to 30%. This follows from the review “Strategy: model portfolio – fixing part of the profit once morest the backdrop of correction risks” dated October 18 (available to RBC Investments). The review was prepared by the director of the analytical department of Sinary, Kirill Tachennikov, and investment bank analyst Vasily Mordovtsev.
In their opinion, some downward pullback of the stock market is likely in October-November, which might be provoked by both the Bank of Russia’s decision on the rate and a new wave of ruble strengthening. At the same time, the remaining growth potential of the index is relatively small – Sinara set a target for the Moscow Exchange index by the end of the year at 3,500 points, which is approximately 7.3% higher than current values.
Analysts also noted that they made their forecast taking into account the risk-free rate of 11.5%, tied to the yield of 10-year OFZs. In this regard, another increase in the key rate by the Central Bank, as well as a possible sale of bonds (and, as a result, an increase in their yield) may further reduce the remaining growth potential of the Moscow Exchange index.
Against this background, experts decided to rebalance the Model Portfolio. The shares of the Moscow Exchange were excluded from its composition, which had risen in price by 53% since being added to the selection in June. Now the price of shares of the trading platform, according to analysts, already largely reflects the positive effect of increased rates.
Shares of Magnit and Rosneft, which had also already shown solid growth, remained in the portfolio, but their weight was reduced. Magnit’s share decreased from 6% to 4%, Rosneft – from 5% to 4%.
Profitability of the “Model Portfolio” in comparison with the dynamics of the Moscow Exchange Index
(Photo: Sinara)
As a result of rebalancing, the “Model Portfolio” from Sinara now looks like this:
Sberbank. Portfolio weight – 15%, target price – ₽300 (upside potential 11%);LUKOIL. Weight in the portfolio – 15%, target price – ₽7100 (-5%);NOVATEK. Weight in the portfolio – 5%, target price – ₽1850 (+6%);“Magnet”. Weight in the portfolio – 4%, target price – ₽6600 (+15%);“Rosneft”. Weight in the portfolio – 4%, target price – ₽640 (+9%);“Surgutneftegaz” (ordinary shares). Weight in the portfolio – 4%, target price – ₽38 (+15%);Severstal. Weight in the portfolio – 4%, target price – ₽1615 (+14.6%);“Rusal”. Weight in the portfolio – 3%, target price – ₽58 (+44%);“Yandex”. Weight in the portfolio – 3%, target price – ₽3500 (+38%);“Pole”. Weight in the portfolio – 3%, target price – ₽14,500 (+21.5%);AFK Sistema. Portfolio weight – 2%, target price – ₽28 (+60%);“Raspadskaya”. Weight in the portfolio – 2%, target price – ₽570 (+61%);MTS. Weight in the portfolio – 2%, target price – ₽340 (+23.6%);TMK. Portfolio weight – 2%, target price – ₽403 (+69.5%); Cash position. Portfolio weight – 30%.
At the same time, the authors of the review noted that a factor of support for the Russian stock market (primarily for the heavy oil and gas sector) might be the rise in prices for Brent oil above $100 per barrel and the rise in gas prices at the TTF hub to more than $1,000 per 1 thousand cubic meters. m. According to analysts, in the current geopolitical situation, both of these options are possible.
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