2023-10-18 01:36:37
Regardless of whether or not there is a second electoral round to crown the new president of the Nation, This Sunday the future composition of Congress is defined. And whoever the next president is, it is a fact that will have its own majority neither in the Chamber of Deputies nor in the Senatewhich opens a complex scenario to execute the reforms promised in the campaign.
Next December 10 half of the Chamber of Deputies is renewed (130 seats out of a total of 257) and one third of the Senate (24 seats out of 72, three for each of the following provinces: Buenos Aires, Formosa, Jujuy, Misiones, La Rioja, San Luis, San Juan and Santa Cruz).
The PASO of August produced a tentative scenario and an accurate fact: the next president will not have a quorum on his own in either Chamber. It’s what he suffered Mauricio Macri throughout his mandate and also Alberto Fernandezwith the exception of the Senate, where it retained the majority until the ruling party split in February.
In Deputies, the wind now blows in favor of Together for Change: The interblock made up of the PRO, the UCR, the Civic Coalition and other partners might remain with the first minority. According to the PASO, it would drop from the current 117 seats to 107, but it would be enough to become the bench closest to quorum of 129. Not even a bad choice of Patricia Bullrich I would get them out of that place.
However, the numbers cannot be taken in isolation: Bullrich is left out of the runoff. might lead to a breakup of the coalition, orphaned of leadership, and this might translate into a rearrangement of the parliamentary blocs. Speculation is the order of the day.
The PASO also ruled that the Front of All (now Union for the Homeland) It would be the second minority, with 94 deputies (today it has 118 and surpasses Together for Change by just one). But the configuration of this space also depends on the result of Sunday and the performance of Sergio Massa.
Milei’s jump
What will happen to La Libertad Avanza? Today the space has three members: the mercy; her running mate, Victoria Villarruel; and the candidate for governor of Buenos Aires Carolina Píparo. Since the three have a mandate until 2025 and the bloc does not put any seats at stake, if it repeats the result of the PASO would amount to 41 members.
Although the jump is enormous, that number does not even mean a third of the House. Not even half of the deputies that Macri had when he took office. This represents an enormous challenge for Milei and the reforms that he intends to apply if he reaches the Casa Rosada, although when asked regarding the issue, the libertarian He minimized it and spoke of calling for popular consultations.
Los “federal” spaces, meanwhile, would reduce their representation: The Federal Interblock would lose a seat, going from 8 to 7, and the United Provinces would go from 4 to 2. Finally, the Left Front would maintain its current 4 deputies.
The dispute for the Presidency
If Together for Change conquers the first minoritywould have the right to access the Presidency of Deputies, even if the elected president was from another political force. It would be an unprecedented situation and, in fact, the discussion regarding whether or not to claim that place It is not settled within the alliance.
There are those who remember the antecedent of Cambiemos: when Macri assumed the government, the then Front for Victory allowed the position to be occupied by Emilio Monzó despite the fact that they held the first minority. It was a political gesture for the sake of “respect the institutions”.
If the next president is Milei, the current Buenos Aires legislator sounds like a candidate for president of the Chamber Oscar Zagowho had a past in the UCR and the PRO.
Senate
In the upper house, which will cease to preside as of December 10 Cristina Kirchner, 24 of the 72 seats are renewed. Three seats are distributed for each of the eight districts they elect: two for the winning force and one for the one that comes second.
Union for the Homeland would maintain its current representation of 31leaving six of the quorum, which is 37. And Together for Change would lose seats at the hands of Mileigoing from the current 33 to 27. As in Deputies, what happens on Sunday will surely be decisive for the configuration of both forces.
Milei’s jump in the Senate it would be brutal: it would go from having no representative to having eight, if it repeats the victories in Jujuy, La Rioja and San Luis, where it would obtain the two seats for the majority in each province for having come out first, added to two seats for the minority in Formosa and San Juan, where he came second.
On the other hand, the Senate also defines the future of Federal Unit, the block that today is the guarantor of the quorum. This space does not compete as such at the electoral level, and therefore would not add any senators. I would be left with 3 of the current 5: Alejandra Vigo from Córdoba, Carlos “Camau” Espínola from Corrientes and Edgardo Kueider from Entre Ríos.
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