2023-10-12 22:44:59
Canada’s oil production is expected to increase by regarding 10% over the next year, making the country one of the world’s leading sources of supply growth, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights.
Currently, the country produces around 4.8 million barrels per day of crude and this figure might increase by around 500,000 to around 5.3 million barrels per day by the end of 2024, according to analysts at S&P Global CommodityInsights.
This would be a historic record for Canadian production.
This increase is higher than the projected growth of 400,000 barrels per day in the United States. Elsewhere, production increases in Guyana and Brazil might lead to growth of around 400,000 barrels per day in Latin America next year.
Tar sands, spearhead of production
Alberta’s oil sands are expected to account for most of this growth, although increases are expected across Western Canada and at offshore facilities near Newfoundland and Labrador.
Half a million is a lot, says Kevin Birn, S&P’s chief analyst for Canadian oil markets. This is more than many countries in the world produce.
The sharp increase in oil production expected over the next 12 to 14 months is partly the result of lower overall production this year, due to lengthy maintenance work at some oil sands facilities.
These forecasts of increased oil production come as the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion begins moving more oil from Alberta to the West Coast. This extension, which is in the final stages of construction, will increase the pipeline’s capacity from 300,000 to 890,000 barrels per day.
Open in full screen mode
The Trans Mountain pipeline expansion will increase the pipeline’s capacity to 890,000 barrels per day, nearly triple current capacity.
Photo : Archyde.com / Dennis Owen
An increase that would be short-lived
Kevin Birn warns, however, that this level of production growth will be short-lived and might stabilize following 2024.
This might be the last big hurray before supply growth in Western Canada slows significantly. We believe this plateau effect will start to be felt around 2025 and 2026.
The restart of the Terra Nova field, off the coast of Newfoundland and Labrador, might happen next year, although it has suffered several delays.
This fall, the federal government intends to release proposed regulations aimed at capping emissions from oil and gas production and then reducing them over time.
The oil sands account for regarding 11% of Canada’s total greenhouse gas emissions, while the rest of the oil industry and the entire natural gas industry account for 15%.
Overall, total oil sands emissions remained stable in 2022, even as production increased slightly, according to an analysis released in August by S&P Global Commodity Insights.
With information from Kyle Bakx
1697173420
#Canada #locomotives #global #oil #production
