2023-10-10 09:47:05
The ongoing conflict between Hamas and Israel raises the specter of a conflagration in the Middle East, and therefore of a new surge in oil prices.
The cost price sales campaign has stabilized prices at the pump in France, around 1.88 euros for the SP95. But can all this be called into question by the geopolitical context?
The ongoing conflict between Hamas and Israel is raising the specter of a conflagration in the Middle East, and therefore of a new surge in oil prices.
So far, oil markets have reacted relatively subdued to the conflict. The price of a barrel of Brent increased by 5% on Monday, to stabilize on Tuesday at 86.67 dollars (81.73 euros). We are still far from the $93.78 at the end of September, following the reduction in Saudi production. And especially from the peak of June 2022, at 115 dollars, following the conflict in Ukraine.
The Middle East concentrates 40% of global oil production
However, the conflict between Hamas and Israel cannot be without economic consequences. Already because it calls into question the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia and therefore the possibility of a resumption of production in the latter country. Then, because a conflict in such a sensitive area of the world can have consequences for the entire Middle East. Area which concentrates 40% of world oil production.
The investment bank Goldman Sachs, in a note published at the beginning of the week, predicts that Brent will reach 100 dollars by June 2024. Until then, no one can say what the outcome of the conflict in Israel will be. . For Bruno Le Maire, Minister of the Economy and Public Finance, these tensions once once more show the need for the country to “ to be completely independent in energy matters », while emphasizing the importance of reducing debt to face a new crisis. We have been warned.
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