2023-10-10 09:57:11
Marrakech (Morocco) (AFP) – The International Monetary Fund (IMF) maintained its growth forecasts for the global economy in 2023, despite signs of weakness displayed by several major economies, according to its data published Tuesday.
The institution still expects global growth of 3% for 2023, and barely lower in 2024, at 2.9%, a slight decrease (-0.1 percentage point) compared to its previous estimate , in July.
“The global economy continues to recover from the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine and is showing remarkable resilience. But growth remains weak and uneven, below historical averages, with significant divergences that appear”, summarized Tuesday at a press conference the chief economist of the IMF, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas.
The situation is indeed contrasted, both among advanced economies and between the main emerging countries, with some seeing their forecasts improve very significantly while others, mainly in Europe, are slowing down or even experiencing a slight recession.
This is due to the persistence of certain shocks, in particular the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Inflation takes time to slow, pushing central banks to continue their restrictive monetary policy with high interest rates.
The Fund therefore anticipates higher inflation than what it forecast three months ago, both for this year (6.9% globally) and next year (5.8%, or 0.6 point more than expected in July).
“The news on inflation is encouraging but we are not there yet (…) and for the moment most countries will not return to target inflation (of 2%, Editor’s note) before 2025” , added Mr. Gourinchas.
IMF growth forecasts © Maxence D’AVERSA / AFP
The opportunity for the IMF to reiterate the importance, according to it, of not relaxing restrictive policies too soon.
Germany in pain
Among the advanced economies, Germany is showing the most worrying signs, with an increasingly certain recession for this year (-0.5%), and more pronounced than expected, then a weak recovery next year (0 .9%), while the IMF, in July, expected better.
After lagging behind last year among the G7 countries, but also compared to other major European economies, the continent’s leading economy will be the only one in recession this year and thus seems to confirm its status as a “sick man” of Europe.
The entrance to the Marrakech conference center where the annual meeting of the IMF and the World Bank is held, October 9, 2023 in Morocco © FADEL SENNA / AFP
“There is a combination of two major factors, on the one hand the energy shock caused by the war in Ukraine in a country very dependent on Russian energy, on the other hand the tightening of monetary policy,” detailed M . Gourinchas, interviewed by AFP.
Other European economies are holding up better: forecasts for France improve slightly for this year (1% expected, or 0.2 points better than anticipated in July) while Spain remains solid (2.5% for 2023). ).
The Italian economy is stalling but remains in positive territory this year (+0.7%), just like, outside the EU, the United Kingdom, which remains faced with sluggish growth (+0.5%).
The situation is different across the Atlantic. The American economy is expected to grow by 2.1% in 2023, far from the recession long predicted by many economists, before slowing down significantly in 2024, to 1.5%.
As for the large emerging countries, the Chinese slowdown is confirmed (+5% this year, +4.2% in 2024, forecasts slightly revised downwards), while the country is suffering from a real estate crisis. .
“It is possible to relax monetary policy and put in place support measures on the budgetary level”, underlined Mr. Gourinchas during the press conference, “we encourage the authorities to act in this direction and I think that ‘they do it.’
The other major emerging countries are experiencing a more positive trend, with a forecast for 2023 revised upwards both in India (6.3%, +0.2 points) and in Latin America, where Brazil (3.1%, +1.0 point) benefits from good performance in raw materials markets, while Mexico (3.2%) is one of the main beneficiaries of the reorganization of supply chains between China and the United States.
As for Russia, whose forecasts a year ago predicted a severe recession for 2023, it continues to see them improve, and should end the year with growth of 2.2%, under the effect notably the sharp increase in public spending linked to the war in Ukraine and an increase in the public deficit.
© 2023 AFP
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